The Oscar envelopes will be opened on Sunday, Feb. 24, and the winners who are announced could be surprising. In a typical year, most of the major categories would seem to be sewn up, and statuettes practically engraved already. But the crop of films from 2012 has provided a very intriguing Oscar race, which began in September with various film festivals around the world.

.

What has been different with 2012 is that there are so many good films from which guilds and organizations such as the Academy could choose. “Lincoln” seemed to be the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture, even before the film was released. After a late “Argo” surge, the film by Ben Affleck seems to be the new front runner. But how many Oscars will the latter film win? That’s a good question.

One thing is for sure, however: the race isn’t over until those gold envelopes are opened on Oscar Sunday. Here is my attempt at some final predictions for the 85th Academy Awards.

Final Winning Tally Prediction

• “Lincoln”: 5/12 || “Life of Pi”: 2/11 || “Les Misérables”: 4/8
• “Silver Linings Playbook”: 1/8 || “Argo”: 2/7 || “Amour”: 2/5
• “Django Unchained”: 0/5 || “Zero Dark Thirty”: 1/5 || “Beasts of the Southern Wild”: 0/4

Best Picture

• “Amour“: Margaret Menegoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka and Michael Katz
• “Argo“: Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
• “Beasts of the Southern Wild“: Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers
• “Django Unchained“: Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
• “Les Misérables“: Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
• “Life of Pi“: Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
• “Lincoln“: Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
• “Silver Linings Playbook“: Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
• “Zero Dark Thirty“: Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers

Best Director

• Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
• Michael Haneke, “Amour”
• David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
• Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Best Actor in a Leading Role

• Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
• Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables”
• Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
• Denzel Washington, “Flight”

Best Actress in a Leading Role

• Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
• Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour” #2
• Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
• Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

• Alan Arkin, “Argo”
• Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook” #2
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
• Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”
• Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• Amy Adams, “The Master”
• Sally Field, “Lincoln”
• Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”
• Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”
• Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Writing — Adapted Screenplay

• “Argo”: Screenplay by Chris Terrio #2
• “Beasts of the Southern Wild”: Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
• “Life of Pi”: Screenplay by David Magee
• “Lincoln”: Screenplay by Tony Kushner
• “Silver Linings Playbook”: Screenplay by David O. Russell

Best Writing — Original Screenplay

• “Amour”: Written by Michael Haneke
• “Django Unchained”: Written by Quentin Tarantino
• “Flight”: Written by John Gatins
• “Moonrise Kingdom”: Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
• “Zero Dark Thirty”: Written by Mark Boal #2

Best Animated Feature Film

• “Brave”: Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
• “Frankenweenie”: Tim Burton
• “ParaNorman”: Sam Fell and Chris Butler
• “The Pirates! Band of Misfits”: Peter Lord
• “Wreck-It Ralph”: Rich Moore #2

Best Cinematography

• “Anna Karenina”: Seamus McGarvey
• “Django Unchained”: Robert Richardson
• “Life of Pi”: Claudio Miranda
• “Lincoln”: Janusz Kaminski
• “Skyfall”: Roger Deakins #2

Best Costume Design

• “Anna Karenina” Jacqueline Durran #2
• “Les Misérables” Paco Delgado
• “Lincoln” Joanna Johnston
• “Mirror Mirror” Eiko Ishioka
• “Snow White and the Huntsman” Colleen Atwood

Best Documentary — Feature

• “5 Broken Cameras”
• “The Gatekeepers”
• “How to Survive a Plague”
• “The Invisible War” #2
• “Searching for Sugar Man”

Best Documentary — Short Subject

• “Inocente”: Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
• “Kings Point”: Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
• “Mondays at Racine”: Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
• “Open Heart”: Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern #2
• “Redemption”: Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill

Best Film Editing

• “Argo”: William Goldenberg
• “Life of Pi”: Tim Squyres
• “Lincoln”: Michael Kahn
• “Silver Linings Playbook”: Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
• “Zero Dark Thirty”: Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

Best Foreign Language Film

• Austria, “Amour,” Michael Haneke, director
• Canada, “War Witch,” Kim Nguyen, director
• Chile, “No,” Pablo Larraín, director
• Denmark, “A Royal Affair,” Nikolaj Arcel, director
• Norway, “Kon-Tiki,” Joachim Rønning and Espen Sandberg, directors

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• “Hitchcock”: Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
• “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”: Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane #2
• “Les Misérables”: Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

Best Music — Original Score

• “Anna Karenina”: Dario Marianelli
• “Argo”: Alexandre Desplat
• “Life of Pi”: Mychael Danna #2
• “Lincoln”: John Williams
• “Skyfall”: Thomas Newman

Best Music — Original Song

• “Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice“: Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
• “Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from “Ted“: Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
• “Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi“: Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
• “Skyfall” from “Skyfall“: Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
• “Suddenly” from “Les Misérables“: Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Best Production Design (formerly Art Direction)

• “Anna Karenina“: Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer #2
• “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey“: Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
• “Les Misérables“: Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
• “Life of Pi“: Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
• “Lincoln“: Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Best Short Film — Animated

• “Adam and Dog”: Minkyu Lee #2
• “Fresh Guacamole”: PES
• “Head over Heels”: Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly
• “Maggie Simpson in ‘The Longest Daycare’” David Silverman
• “Paperman”: John Kahrs

Best Short Film — Live Action

• “Asad”: Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
• “Buzkashi Boys”: Sam French and Ariel Nasr
• “Curfew”: Shawn Christensen
• “Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)”: Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
• “Henry”: Yan England

Best Sound Editing

• “Argo”: Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn #2
• “Django Unchained”: Wylie Stateman
• “Life of Pi”: Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
• “Skyfall”: Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
• “Zero Dark Thirty”: Paul N.J. Ottosson

Best Sound Mixing

• “Argo”: John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia #2
• “Les Misérables”: Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
• “Life of Pi”: Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
• “Lincoln”: Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
• “Skyfall”: Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson

Best Visual Effects

• “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey“: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
• “Life of Pi“: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
• “Marvel’s The Avengers“: Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
• “Prometheus“: Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
• “Snow White and the Huntsman“: Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson

The 85th Academy Awards will be televised LIVE on ABC Sunday, Feb. 24, 2013, at 5:30 p.m. PT.

Read more about the Oscars and enter our Prediction Challenge: STAR @ THE ACADEMY AWARDS

Tags: Academy Awards, James A. Molnar, Oscars, predictions, The Gold Knight, The Oscars

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 21st, 2013 at 8:36 pm and is filed under Arts and Life, Film, Oscars, Star, The Gold Knight.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

A Columbus-based data science firm is getting into the Oscar predicting game.

Illustration by James A. Molnar.

Using data and algorithms, a team at Farsite is putting its skills to the test for the biggest awards show of the year.

The team launched FarsiteForecast.com on Jan. 10, the day nominations were announced for the 85th Academy Awards. The site includes predicted winners in the top categories, along with the odds of each winning.

Leading the effort is Conor Gaughan, chief strategy officer at Farsite.

Writing multiple posts each week, Gaughan uses to compare topics like box office gross with Oscar success and ties between political themes with Best Picture nominees.

“It’s a fun, different way to use all of the amazing data that’s out there as it applies to the entertainment world,” Gaughan said in an interview with Toledo Free Press Star.

“When we looked at the landscape for 2013 and what was coming up … the Oscars is such a pivotal pop culture event,” he said. “We thought what better way to talk about the media and entertainment industry and pop culture trend … and apply this really important, burgeoning technology around data science to help people learn about data science in a way that’s fun and interesting.”

The races

In the lead for Best Picture is Ben Affleck’s film “Argo,” according to Farsite’s data as of press time (see charts to the right for full predictions).

Gaughan said another Oscar race is also interesting.

“The Best Supporting Actor race is turning out to be one of the closest,” he said. “Although, I think when we look back after the Oscars, folks are really going to find the Best Picture race to be one of the most interesting we’ve had in the last 10 or so years.”

Graphs courtesy FarsiteForecast.com.

“Lincoln” was originally seen as the Oscar front-runner, especially after Affleck was not nominated for Best Director.

However, Gaughan points to recent entertainment guilds that have honored Affleck and “Argo,” showing a swell of support for the director and his film.

“Best Picture has been the most active race, particularly following the last two weeks,” Gaughan said, referring to recent wins for “Argo” at the Producers Guild Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards and Directors Guild Awards.

“From early in November through a week and a half ago even two weeks ago, ‘Lincoln’ has stayed pretty consistent — not just as a leader, but pretty consistent from a probability perspective — in the race leadership role,” Gaughan said. “It wasn’t really until, frankly, the Producers Guild Awards that ‘Argo’ had a spike.”

The forecast for an “Argo” win is 42.1 percent, with “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Amour” rounding out the top three (“Lincoln” has 9 percent).

Other races Farsite is predicting include the directing and acting categories. Steven Spielberg is leading the directing race with 81.8 percent. Daniel Day-Lewis (Best Actor), Jennifer Lawrence (Best Actress) and Anne Hathaway (Best Supporting Actress) look poised to win their respective categories by large margins. In the Best Supporting Actor category, Christoph Waltz has a 1.4 percent lead over Tommy Lee Jones.

Farsite

Founded in 2007, Farsite works in a number of industries and uses data to help companies improve their bottom lines, said CEO Michael Gold.

Michael Gold.

“First and foremost, we’re a data science firm so our company takes big data and builds a predictive and advanced analytic model to empower companies to make decisions to improve revenue [and] decrease cost,” said Gold, 32, who has been with the company since its founding.

Gold said predicting the Oscars was Gaughan’s idea; it was a way to demonstrate Farsite’s value to the entertainment industry.

“When I came on board to Farsite and joined Michael’s team, one of the things I wanted to do was help bridge these two worlds,” said Gaughan, 32, whose background is in the media and entertainment business. “This seemed like the perfect project to do it.”

Many have asked what the “secret sauce” is to Farsite’s predictions.

Conor Gaughan.

“We have 80 years of movie data and 40 years of Oscars-specific data,” Gold said. “A part of that is who has won in the past, total nominations.” Real-time feedback and buzz is also used, he said.

“Sometimes, momentums shift throughout an awards season,” Gold said. “I think we’re definitely seeing that this year between ‘Argo’ and ‘Lincoln.’”

Once the Oscars are over, Gaughan said Farsite may try to tackle other projects such as March Madness.

Gold said forecasting the box office take for movies would also be coming up on the site.

The trend

Farsite is not the only company doing data-driven predicting.

Most recently, New York Times blogger and statistician Nate Silver correctly predicted the results of the 2012 presidential election, after a year full of statistics, polling and number crunching.

Now the team at Farsite is looking to see how it fares come Oscar Sunday.

However, an Oscars expert cautions about the use of stats to predict the race.

“They only take you so far,” said Sasha Stone, founder of AwardsDaily.com; Stone has covered the Oscars race season-by-season for more than decade.

“Every weird year carries its own precedent,” she said in an email. “Like you can’t say, ‘No way will “Argo” win because it will have to make history three different ways to do so.’ But if it does make history it becomes its own stat.

“History around the awards race has evolved so dramatically that you really can’t compare this year with even 10 years ago,” she said. “Human emotion is always unpredictable at the end of the day.”

On Feb. 24, Oscar fans and Farsite will learn how predictable the Oscars can be.

Read more and enter our Prediction Challenge: STAR @ THE ACADEMY AWARDS

Tags: Academy Awards, argo, AwardsDaily.com, Ben Affleck, Best Picture, Columbus, Conor Gaughan, data science, Farsite, Farsite Forecast, guild awards, James A. Molnar, lincoln, Michael Gold, Nate Silver, Oscars, predictions, Sasha Stone, stats, The Gold Knight, The Oscars

This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 13th, 2013 at 4:36 pm and is filed under Arts and Life, Film, Oscars, Star, The Gold Knight.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Download your Oscar Ballot here.

Outguess TFP Star’s Oscarologists in their predictions and you will be entered to win two movie tickets to Rave Levis Commons and a $50 gift certificate to Blue Pacific Grill at Levis Commons. If no one outguesses the team, the entrant with the most categories predicted correctly will win. In case of a tie, the win will go to the entrant

who best predicts which film will take home the most Oscars. One entry per person.

Before you fill out your ballot, you can download an Oscars Ballot to see all of our Oscarologists’ predictions.

Fill out and submit your Oscars Ballot (below) by 5 p.m. EST on Feb. 24, 2013.

Don’t forget to watch the 84th Academy Awards on Sunday, Feb. 24, to find out the winners. The Oscars will air locally at 8:30 p.m. on 13abc. Red carpet coverage begins at 7 p.m.

Thank you for participating in our prediction challenge. Winners will be announced by March 4.

Read more: STAR @ THE ACADEMY AWARDS

Don’t forget to watch the 84th Academy Awards on Sunday, Feb. 24, to find out the winners. The Oscars will air locally at 8:30 p.m. on 13abc. Red carpet coverage begins at 7 p.m.

Tags: 85th annual, Academy Awards, ballot, contest, Film, Oscar Ballot Predictions, Oscars, predictions, The Gold Knight, The Oscars

This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 13th, 2013 at 12:05 am and is filed under Arts and Life, Contests, Film, Oscars, Star, The Gold Knight.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Pop Culture editor Jeff McGinnis breaks down the head-to-head races and predicts the champs for the 85th Academy Awards.

Read more: STAR @ THE ACADEMY AWARDS

Pick up a copy of the Feb. 13 Toledo Free Press STAR to read more about the 2013 Oscars.

Tags: 85th annual, Academy Awards, acting, Amour, Ang Lee, Anne Hathaway, argo, Best Direction, Best Picture, Daniel Day-Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, lincoln, predictions, Sally Field, Steven Spielberg, The Gold Knight, The Oscars, The Race, Tommy Lee Jones, Zero Dark Thirty

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 12th, 2013 at 5:39 pm and is filed under Arts and Life, Film, Jeff McGinnis, Oscars, Star, The Gold Knight.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Calling Seth MacFarlane the Oscars host may be an understatement.

He will be joining Emma Stone early Thursday morning, Jan. 10, to announce the 85th Academy Awards nominations.

.

Typically, the motion picture academy president is one of the announcers. This will be the first time since 1972 that an Oscars host has participated in the nominations announcement.

MacFarlane and Stone will unveil nominations for about 10 of the 24 categories at a 8:35 a.m. ET news conference on Thursday in the Samuel Goldwyn Theater at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences headquarters in Beverly Hills, Calif. Hundreds of media representatives from around the world will be gathered.

Here are predictions for the nominations in every category (and predicted winners in bold).

Final Nominations Tally Prediction:

• “Lincoln”: 12
• “Django Unchained”: 9
• “Zero Dark Thirty”: 8
• “Les Misérables”: 8
• “Life of Pi”: 7
• “Argo”: 6
• “Silver Linings Playbook”: 5
• “Skyfall”: 5

Best Picture

• “Argo”
• “Beast of the Southern Wild”
• “Django Unchained”
• “Les Misérables”
• “Life of Pi”
• “Lincoln”
• “Silver Linings Playbook”
• “Zero Dark Thirty”

Dark Horses:

• “Skyfall”
• “Moonrise Kingdom”
• “Amour”
• “Flight”

• Ben Affleck, “Argo”
• Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”
• Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
• \Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
• Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”

Dark Horses:

• David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Tom Hooper,” Les Misérables”

Best Actor in a Leading Role

• Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
• Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables”
• Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”
• Denzel Washington, “Flight”

Dark Horses:

• Jean Louis Trintignant, “Amour”
• John Hawkes, “The Sessions”
• Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”

Watch the Academy’s live webcast on ToledoFreePress.com on Jan. 10.

The 85th Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2012, will be presented on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2013, at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center, and will be televised live locally on 13abc and in more than 225 countries worldwide.

Toledo Free Press Star Lead Designer and Film Editor James A. Molnar blogs about all things Oscar at TheGoldKnight.com. Watch him discuss movies on “WNWO Today” around 5:50 a.m. on Fridays. Also, listen to James discuss movies on “Eye on Your Weekend” on 1370 WSPD every Friday at 6 p.m.

Tags: Academy Awards, Film, James A. Molnar, Movies, nominations, Oscars, predictions, The Gold Knight, The Oscars

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 10th, 2013 at 12:48 am and is filed under Arts and Life, Film, Star, The Gold Knight.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Download your Oscar Ballot here.

Outguess Star’s Oscarologists in their predictions and you will be entered to win an official Academy Awards poster. The top winner also receives tickets to “Titanic 3-D” and a poster. If no one outguesses the team, the entrant with the most categories predicted correctly will win. In case of a tie, the win will go to the entrant who best predicts which film will take home the most Oscars. One entry per person.

Before you fill out your ballot, you can download an Oscars Ballot to see all of our Oscarologists’ predictions.

Fill out and submit your ballot (below) by 5 p.m. EST on Feb. 26, 2012.

Don’t forget to watch the 84th Academy Awards on Sunday, Feb. 26, to find out the winners. The Oscar will air locally at 8:30 p.m. on WTVG 13abc. Red carpet coverage begins at 7 p.m.

Thank you for participating in our prediction challenge, which is now closed. Winners will be announced by March 2.

Tags: 84th Oscars, Academy Awards, contest, Film, Oscar Ballot Predictions, predictions, The Gold Knight, Titanic

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 14th, 2012 at 5:40 pm and is filed under Arts and Life, Contests, Film, Star, The Gold Knight.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

.

Tuesday is the beginning of the end. The beginning of the end of awards season, that is. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce its Oscars nominees.

At 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time — that’s 5:30 a.m. on the West Coast — movie fans will learn the nominations for the 84th Academy Awards.

Jennifer Lawrence, Best Actress nominee last year for “Winter’s Bone,” will join Academy President Tom Sherak in announcing 10 of the 24 categories at a press conference at Academy headquarters in Beverly Hills, Calif.

.

The Gold Knight has been fine-tuning his list of potential Oscar nominees since the fall and is now ready to predict the nominees in all 24 categories (and potential winners) — with approximately 75 percent confidence.

Best Picture: “The Artist,” “The Descendants,” “The Help,” “Hugo,” “Midnight in Paris” and “Moneyball.” DARK HORSES: “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and “War Horse.” There are 5-10 nominations possible for Best Picture, but this columnist is predicting SIX NOMINEES.

Best Director: Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”; David Fincher, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”; Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”; Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”; and Martin Scorsese, “Hugo.” DARK HORSES: Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life,” and Steven Spielberg, “War Horse.”

Best Actor in a Leading Role: George Clooney, “The Descendants”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “J. Edgar”; Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”; Michael Fassbender, “Shame”; and Brad Pitt, “Moneyball.” DARK HORSES: Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”; Ryan Gosling, “The Ides of March” or “Drive”; and Michael Shannon, “Take Shelter.”

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”; Viola Davis, “The Help”; Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”; Tilda Swinton, “We Need to Talk About Kevin”; and Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn.” DARK HORSES: Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” and Elizabeth Olsen, “Martha Marcy May Marlene.”

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”; Albert Brooks, “Drive”; Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”; Nick Nolte, “Warrior”; and Christopher Plummer, “Beginners.” DARK HORSES: Ben Kingsley, “Hugo”; Alan Rickman, “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″; and Andy Serkis, “Rise of Planet of the Apes.”

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Bérénice Bejo, “The Artist”; Jessica Chastain, “The Help”; Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”; Octavia Spencer, “The Help”; and Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants.” DARK HORSES: Vanessa Redgrave, “Coriolanus”; Carey Mulligan, “Drive” or “Shame”; and Janey McTeer, “Albert Nobbs.”

Best Original Screenplay: “The Artist,” Michel Hazanavicius; “Bridesmaids,” Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig; “50/50,” Will Reiser; “Midnight in Paris,” Woody Allen; and “Win Win,” Tom McCarthy. DARK HORSES: “Beginners,” Mike Mills, and “Young Adult,” Diablo Cody.

Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Descendants,” Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne and Jim Rash; “The Help,” Tate Taylor; “Hugo,” John Logan; “Moneyball,” Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian; and “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy,” Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan. DARK HORSES: “The Ides of March,” George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon; and “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” Steven Zaillian.

Best Art Direction: “The Artist,” “Hugo,” “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2,” “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” and “War Horse.” DARK HORSES: “Midnight in Paris,” “Jane Eyre” and “The Help.”

Best Cinematography: “The Artist,” “Hugo,” “Moneyball,” “The Tree of Life,” and “War Horse.” DARK HORSES: “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and “Drive.”

Best Costume Design: “Anonymous,” Lisy Christl; “The Artist,” Mark Bridges; “The Help,” Sharen Davis; “Hugo,” Sandy Powell and “War Horse,” Joanna Johnston. DARK HORSES: “My Week with Marilyn,” “Jane Eyre” and “Tinker Tailer Soldier Spy.”

Best Film Editing: “The Artist,” “The Descendants,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” “Hugo” and “Moneyball.” DARK HORSES: “War Horse,” “Beginners” and “Drive.”

Best Makeup: “The Artist,” “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ and “The Iron Lady.” DARK HORSES: “Albert Nobbs,” “Anonymous,” “Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life” and “Hugo.”

Best Music — Original Score: “The Artist,” Ludovic Bource; “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross; “Hugo,” Howard Shore; “Tinker Tailer Soldier Spy,” Alberto Iglesias; and “War Horse,” John Williams. DARK HORSES: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2,” Alexandre Desplat; “The Adventures of Tintin,” John Williams; and “Super 8″ Michael Giacchino.

Best Music — Original Song: “Albert Nobbs” — “Lay Your Head Down,” Sinead O’Connor; “Gnomeo and Juliet” — “Hello Hello,” Elton John; “The Help” — “The Living Proof,” written by Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason, Jr., and Thomas Newman; “The Muppets” — “Man or Muppet”; and “The Muppets” — “Pictures in My Head.” DARK HORSES: “The Muppets,” “Life’s a Happy Song”; “Hugo,” “Coeur Volant”; and “Winnie the Pooh,” “So Long.”

Best Sound Editing: “Drive,” “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2,” “Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol,” “Super 8″ and “Transformers: Dark of the Moon.” DARK HORSES: “Hanna,” “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” and “War Horse.”

Best Sound Mixing: “The Artist,” “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2,” “Hugo,” “Super 8″ and “War Horse.” DARK HORSES: “The Adventures of Tintin,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides” and “Rise of the Planet of the Apes.”

Best Visual Effects: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2,” “Hugo,” “Rise of the Planet of the Apes,” “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” and “The Tree of Life.” DARK HORSES: “Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides” and “Captain America.”

Best Animated Feature: “The Adventures of Tintin,” “Kung Fu Panda 2,” “Puss in Boots,” “Rango” and “Winnie the Pooh.” DARK HORSES: “Arthur Christmas” and “Cars 2.”

Best Foreign Language Film: Canada, “Monsieur Lazhar,” Philippe Falardeau, director; Germany, “Pina,” Wim Wenders, director; Iran, “A Separation,” Asghar Farhadi, director; Poland, “In Darkness,” Agnieszka Holland, director; and Taiwan, “Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale,” Wei Te-sheng, director. DARK HORSES: Belgium, “Bullhead,” Michael R. Roskam, director; and Denmark, “Superclásico,” Ole Christian Madsen, director.

Best Documentary Feature: “Bill Cunningham New York” (First Thought Films); “If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front” (Marshall Curry Productions, LLC); “Pina” (Neue Road Movies GmbH); “Project Nim” (Red Box Films); and “Semper Fi: Always Faithful” (Tied to the Tracks Films, Inc.). DARK HORSES: “Buck” (Cedar Creek Productions) and “Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory” (@radical.media).

Best Documentary Short: “The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement,” Purposeful Productions, Inc.; “Incident in New Baghdad,” Morninglight Films; “Pipe Dreams,” Leslie Iwerks Productions; “Saving Face,” Milkhaus/Jungefilm; and “Witness,” Buche.

Best Short Film Animated: “Dimanche/Sunday,” Patrick Doyon, director (National Film Board of Canada); “The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore,” William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg, directors (Moonbot Studios LA, LLC); “La Luna,” Enrico Casarosa, director (Pixar Animation Studios); “A Morning Stroll,” Grant Orchard, director and Sue Goffe, producer (Studio AKA); and “Wild Life,” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby, directors (National Film Board of Canada). DARK HORSES: “I Tawt I Taw a Puddy Tat,” Matthew O’Callaghan, director and Sam Register, executive producer (Warner Bros. Animation Inc.).

Best Short Film Live Action: “Je Pourrais Être Votre Grand-Mère (I Could Be Your Grandmother),” Bernard Tanguy, director-producer (Rézina Productions); “Love at First Sight,” Michael Davies, director and Sandra Gorel, producer (Spellbound Films); “The Road Home,” Rahul Gandotra, director-producer and Ameenah Ayub, producer (London Film School); “The Roar of the Sea,” Ana Rocha Fernandes and Torsten Truscheit, directors (Niama Filmproduktion GmbH); and “Sailcloth,” Elfar Adalsteins, director-producer (Berserk Films).

Nominations for the 84th Academy Awards will be announced Tuesday, Jan. 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Watch them live on TheGoldKnight.com.

Toledo Free Press Lead Designer and Film Editor James A. Molnar blogs about all things Oscar at TheGoldKnight.com.

Tags: 84th Oscars, Academy Awards, James A. Molnar, Movies, nominations, Oscars, predictions, The Gold Knight, The Oscars

This entry was posted on Monday, January 23rd, 2012 at 12:59 pm and is filed under Arts and Life, Film, Star, The Gold Knight.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

It’s time for bacchanalian party of the year: the Golden Globe Awards. Ricky Gervais is the ringleader for the third year of an evening where celebrities eat and, notably, drink — an awards show without the required gravitas. Two years ago, Gervais was the first host in 15 years for the show by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). After last year’s show, where Gervais pulled all the punches on the nominees and stars in the room, many thought the HFPA would not invite him back. Alas, the organization did and viewers will again see a smug Gervais beer in hand ready to dish some jokes.

Toledo Free Press pop culture guru Jeff McGinnis and entertainment contributor Michael Siebenaler join this awards show junkie in trying to predict the unpredictable Golden Globes.

Jeff McGinnis: Okay, I’ll be honest. The Golden Globes are a total crapshoot. No matter what you think the obvious trends are leading into award season, the choices of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association are sure to throw quite a few curveballs your way. It’s not like the Oscars, where you can basically pick up on signs and figure out where the vote will go. There are so many variables and bizarre quirks to the Golden Globes that predictions are virtually useless. The globe on top of the statue might as well be a lotto ball. That said, here are my (surely to be wrong) predictions for the big categories.

Michael Siebenaler: Will my sides split from laughing at host Ricky Gervais or cringe from his awkward moments and insults? Probably both. Will Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt win? No. Will one of them win? Yes. Will Morgan Freeman be gracious as he accepts the Cecil B. DeMille Award? Of course, who does not like that voice? (Though, he couldn’t quite save “Conan the Barbarian” from the box office cellar last year.)

.

Predictions

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

James: It’s George Clooney’s year. But Brad Pitt may have the HFPA seeing stars.

Jeff: George Clooney. Common sense leans toward either George Clooney for “The Descendants” or Brad Pitt for “Moneyball,” but again, what does common sense have to do with anything here? I’ll go with my gut and say Clooney’s momentum is too strong.

Michael: Brad Pitt for “Moneyball” (Clooney will get the Oscar)

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

James: Viola Davis for “The Help” would give a better speech (and is on her way to the Oscars), but Meryl Streep is the frontrunner.

Jeff: Meryl Streep. The Meryl Streep factor will be put to the test first here. People love her work, but haven’t exactly loved the movie it’s in. Can the HFPA put aside its disdain for the movie to honor a great performance? Maybe not, but then, who else is there who stands out in this category?

Michael: Meryl Streep for “The Iron Lady.” Glenn Close will get her win for Best Song.

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)

James: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist.”

Jeff: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist.” By contrast, there are a lot of really good performances in this category. I’d love to see Joseph Gordon-Levitt get a nod for his work in “50/50,” but I think the bandwagon for “The Artist” is too strong, especially among the HFPA voters. If they love “Midnight in Paris” that much, MAYBE Owen Wilson is a spoiler here. But I don’t think so.

Michael: Jean Dujardin for “The Artist,” definitely a rising star. I loved him in the OSS 117 films — check them out on Netflix!

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)

James: Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn.” Sorry, Kristen Wiig.

Jeff: Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn.” I have to think this one’s pretty cut and dried — Michelle Williams has been talked up as Oscar bait since “My Week with Marilyn” premiered — but there’s some talk of Charlize Theron picking this one up for “Young Adult.” I don’t know, did that movie garner enough love from the press for that? Still leaning toward Williams.

Michael: Kristen Wiig for “Bridesmaids,” it’s an “SNL” sweep! Well, except for Tina Fey.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

James: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners.” He should also get the Oscar.

Michael: Christopher Plummer for “Beginners,” although I would love to see Albert Brooks get it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

James: Octavia Spencer, “The Help.”

Michael: Octavia Spencer for “The Help,” just edges out Bérénice Bejo for “The Arist.”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

James: Hard to predict what the HFPA will do, but I say “Rango.”

Jeff: “The Adventures of Tintin.” Of this group, it has to be “The Adventures of Tintin,” right? I can’t see “Puss in Boots” or “Arthur Christmas” winning it, “Cars 2″ was the first Pixar movie that got tepid reviews, and “Rango” came out so long ago. And it’s Spielberg.

Michael: “The Adventures of Tintin”: Spielberg has to win something

BEST FOREIGN LANUAGE FILM

James: “A Separation.”

Michael: “A Separation,” though I would love to see Zhang Yimou’s “The Flowers of War” win. Director Jolie could win with her “In the Land of Blood and Honey.”

BEST DIRECTOR

James: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist,” although Martin Scorsese for “Hugo” could be the upset.

Jeff: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist.” Martin Scorsese and Woody Allen both turned in great movies, but “The Artist” is just too hot right now, methinks. Michel Hazanavicius (thank god for spell check) will win and keep the momentum rolling.

Michael: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist.” What an amazing film with an amazing behind-the-scenes story.

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

James: Again, it’s hard to know which way the voters will swing, but

Jeff: “The Descendants.” Many of these — if not all — will be Oscar nominees, but only one is a really serious contender: “The Descendants.” The voters may love to throw a huge curveball and give it to “Hugo,” but I think conventional wisdom will prevail. I’d love to see “Moneyball” get some love, but I think Clooney’s drama will take the prize.

Michael: “The Descendants,” the likely Oscar winner. Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash should also win for screenplay for “The Descendants.”

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)

James: “The Artist.”

Jeff: “The Arists.” Same basic concept here, only more blatant. “The Artist” is the one with all the momentum, and the actual Oscar contender. Now watch it be “Bridesmaids,” just to spite me.

Michael: “The Artist”: Amazing result for a big risk filming largely a silent film.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES (DRAMA)

James: I haven’t seen any of these show, but HBO is always a good choice. “Boardwalk Empire” has the history to win, but “Game of Thrones” may do it.

Jeff: “Boardwalk Empire.” Okay, now this is interesting. Basically, it’s a two horse race between “Game of Thrones” and “Boardwalk Empire,” unless Showtime’s hype campaign for “Boss” has worked some magic. What will the HFPA lean toward? Toss a coin…

Michael: “Boardwalk Empire”: great production values and acting.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)

James: “Glee” won it last year, but “Modern Family” will win this year.

Jeff: “Modern Family,” almost by default. Nothing wrong with “Glee” or “New Girl,” but I can’t see these voters embracing them this year.

Michael: “Modern Family”: cannot get more laughs in 22 minutes.

Other TV categories by Michael:

Best Actress — Drama: Claire Danes for “Homeland,” continues her winning streak.

Best Actor — Drama: Bryan Cranston for “Breaking Bad.” No Hugh Laurie? OK, Cranston deserves it.

Best Actress — Comedy or Musical: Amy Poehler for “Parks and Recreation.” Fey is so proud her fellow SNL alum wins.

Best Actor — Comedy or Musical: John Galecki for “The Big Band Theory.” “Geeks” rule!

Best Mini-Series or Made-for-TV Movie: “Downton Abbey” … go PBS!

The Golden Globe Awards will air LIVE coast-to-coast on Sunday, Jan. 15, 2012, on NBC from 5:00-8:00 p.m. (PST) /8:00-11:00 p.m. (EST) from the Beverly Hilton Hotel with host Ricky Gervais.

Find all of the nominations at GoldenGlobes.org.

Tags: Golden Globes, James A. Molnar, Jeff McGinnis, Michael Siebenaler, Movies, predictions, Ricky Gervais, Television, The Gold Knight

This entry was posted on Friday, January 13th, 2012 at 2:13 pm and is filed under Arts and Life, Film, Pop Goes the Culture, Star, Television, The Gold Knight.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.