Sadly, that drops their record to 3-15, 0-4 in the MAC, and makes them losers of eight straight games. These are all saddening statistics, but there’s more to Wednesday’s 58-54 loss to Northern Illinois than meets the eye:

• That was the best nine minutes they’ve played all year. Right out of the gate, UT played inspired and unstoppable. They defended well, hit shots, and moved the ball around. It’s too bad the 16-5 lead they built didn’t last; seven minutes later, NIU tied the game.

• Griffin and Freelove are professional drivers. Do not attempt. Two guys who didn’t play much to start the year are starting to realize their roles. Freshman guards Malcolm Griffin and Josh Freelove are both excellent ball handlers, and more importantly, both know how to drive the lane. Griffin had his third straight game with double-digit points (13), while Freelove had a career-high 11. But it was how they scored that was impressive. Combined, 18 of their 24 points were “in the paint,” either by laying it up in transition or creating space with a short jumper. By comparison, the entire Huskies team had 14 points in the paint. But behind every rookie professional driver lies some fender benders: Griffin had six turnovers and would occasionally make the most puzzling pass to nobody.

• There are other types of shots besides three-point shots. Jake Barnett was 2-for-10 from behind the line. Justin Anyijong was 1-for-7. Many of these attempts were ill-advised and “settled for.” Conversely, Barnett and Anyijong took only six two-point attempts between them. They may not know this, but the closer they are to the basket, the less distance through the air the ball has to travel. Sounds like an easier way to score to me.

• At least they were alert when the shots were missed. While rebounding — or the absence thereof — was killing them in recent games, the Rockets drew even on the boards with NIU as each team grabbed 37. Anyijong brought down 11 by himself. Everyone boxed out. They leaped high and tipped it to their teammates. They chased down long caroms. They were in good position. It was one of the most refreshing signs that the team is playing looser and smarter.

• But, in the end, they were simply outmatched. This might be NIU’s year in basketball. Wednesday night’s win put them at 4-0 in the MAC for the first time in their school’s history. Colorado transfer Xavier Silas is one of the conference’s top scorers, and in NIU’s six-game winning streak, this is the closest they’ve come to defeat. They were picked second to win the MAC West, but they might surpass that.

The Rockets may be 3-15, but remember: there are no seniors on this team. As a result, the learning curve for them is much steeper than any square inch of land in Northwest Ohio. But they are improving … noticeably.

But after nine games, the Toledo Rockets are 3-7, and after a wild win over IPFW, a few safe conclusions can be drawn:

• Jake Barnett is the closer. Before the season I imagined Justin Anyijong and/or Mouhamed Lo being the go-to players, since they were the only two juniors on a team with no seniors. But Barnett, a 6-5 true freshman, has become the guy the Rockets turn to whenever they need points. What more proof do you need: he scored the winning layup against IPFW Thursday night with seconds left on the clock. Along with Anyijong and sophomore point guard Larry Bastfield, Barnett was named a co-captain prior to the season, the first time in school history a freshman has been bestowed that title. He leads the team in points, steals, rebounds, 3-point accuracy, and free throw percentage. Yeah, I’d say he’s earned the captain badge.

• Jay Shunnar is the fan favorite. You don’t even need to measure decibels in the audience to know this. The story sells itself. Tried out for the team. Rode the pine as a walk-on. Overlooked to the point that he had his name misspelled on his video scoreboard player graphic (“Sunnar”). And finally … slowly worked himself into the rotation. Prior to this week’s games against Wright State and IPFW, Shunnar saw 28 total minutes in his career (24 this season, four last). In two games, he averaged 28 minutes, establishing himself as the current sixth man. Against IPFW, Shunnar tied the previously lauded Barnett with 16 points. To go along with five assists, a couple rebounds, and a key steal, the Ann Arbor native turned the ball over exactly zero times — which is as many times as he did Tuesday.

• I was absolutely wrong about Frosty coupons. It takes a big man to admit mistakes. Earlier I chided UT for giving away a coupon for a free small Wendy’s Frosty to everyone in attendance if the team scored at least 60 points. I was deathly afraid this young team would struggle to reach it with regularity. But only once in five regular season games have they fallen below the coupon line (only 56 points against Wright State). My punishment, sadly, has been free ice cream, something my gut is telling me I don’t really need. (Remind me to potentially rescind this mea culpa when MAC play begins and aggravating teams like Miami come in and slow the tempo down.)

So the Falcons finished their season at 7-5 after an unusual 38-24 win over UT. With 71 to 73 teams vying for 68 spots, this tells you a couple things:

1. Having that extra win will definitely help the Falcons over some of the 6-6 teams.
2. My word, that’s a lot of bowls.

The good news is that both bowl projection websites I frequent, CFN’s and ESPN’s, expect BGSU to be selected for a bowl game. The bad news is they all predict the same outcome: Bowling Green vs. Marshall in the EagleBank Bowl.

Yikes.

In a warranted case of looking a gift horse in the mouth and acting confused, it’s not so much that the EagleBank Bowl is not a very hallowed game. (It’s not, but any bowl game can help Freddie Barnes break the NCAA Division I record for receptions in a season.) It’s more that BGSU already played the Thundering Herd earlier this season in a 17-10 loss. Rematches are no fun.

It’s better than nothing, I suppose. For what it’s worth, both sites have Northern Illinois playing Idaho in the Humanitarian Bowl, which is another rematch. So what’s the better locale in late December: Boise or Washington, DC?

This is all speculation, of course. If Army beats Navy, an unlikely albeit very real outcome, the Black Knights would become 6-6 and qualify for the EagleBank Bowl. This would probably bump Marshall, also 6-6, out of the bowl, but it could also move the Falcons to an even more depressing location in late December: Bowling Green, Ohio.

See? Speculation is fun!

Michigan and Ohio State had their day over the weekend, but how often does UT or BG get to showcase their full repertoire of revenue sports? On Friday night, the Falcons football team beat Akron 36-20 on ESPNU. Meanwhile, in Iowa, their basketball team was getting shelled by the Hawkeyes 68-46 on the Big Ten Network. And the hockey team, once rumored to be dropped by the school, upset Michigan 4-2.

Never mind Saturday’s results, including the Wolverines hockey team exacting revenge on the Falcons in Lucas County Arena with a 4-1 win. Or the women’s basketball team losing to Marist. Because these paragraphs were about Friday. Wonderful, magical Friday.

3-POINT BRIGHT SPOT — The UT basketball team also had their fair share of exposure. Even though what was exposed most was their youth, a couple of major schools also caught a glimpse of redshirt freshman guard Stephen Albrecht. He totaled 19 points against Cincinnati and led the team with 20 at Michigan State, but he also sank five 3-point baskets in each game. His 18 points per game is by far the best on his own roster, and his 4.3 treys per game puts him at sixth in the nation in this extremely early season.

REMEMBER HIM? — When we last left Bruce Gradkowski, we saw him floundering with the Cleveland Browns last year, starting the final game, a 31-0 loss to Pittsburgh, because Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, and even Ken Dorsey were all out with injuries. (Or maybe they took the easy way out.) The former UT quarterback is making the MAC lineage of signal callers proud yet again, now that the Oakland Raiders tabbed him the starter over former No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell. Gradkowski led his team to a ridiculously shocking 20-17 upset over the AFC North-leading Bengals, going 17-for-34 for 183 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception that occurred primarily because he was hit as he threw.

From everything San Francisco Chronicle writer Scott Ostler says about him, the Raiders appear to be — at least for now — moving forward with Gradkowski as their starter. He’ll even start on Thanksgiving against the Dallas Cowboys. Perhaps that’ll give Northwest Ohioans something to watch, especially if the Lions game is blacked out.

BRASS ONES — Last Friday night at a more-than-half-full sports bar in Saline, Mich., just outside of Ann Arbor, I saw a table of Ohio State fans clad in full scarlet and gray apparel. With a sea of maize in every other booth, all the tables adjacent to the Buckeyes supporters were vacant. At first I wondered why these fans would be so daring as to advance into enemy territory dressed like that. Then I saw the Buckeyes run for 251 yards against the Wolverines the following day.

My question was answered. Taking a page out of the Rich Rodriguez defensive playbook, the Michigan fans simply couldn’t stop them from entering the premises.

If you needed any sort of UT men’s basketball preview beyond that, you simply love excess reading. They lost their exhibition game to Division II foe Central State on Tuesday by seven. Saturday night they lost their home opener to Eastern Illinois by 10, and for much of the game it wasn’t really close. The team’s greatest export is youthful exuberance, but for this season that may not translate into many games.

Naturally, it’s up to the athletic department to come up with new and inventive plans to bring fans into the stands and, perhaps more importantly, keep them in their seats for the entire game. That’s why Saturday night they tantalized the audience with coupons for a free small Wendy’s Frosty, provided the Rockets scored 60 or more points. (And they did.) At face value it’s just a 99-cent dessert, but one who would freely refuse a free Frosty is either an American traitor or perhaps lactose intolerant. It’s a brilliant ploy by the Rockets athletic department, because even in a blowout there is a reason to stay, other than to see the dudes at the end of the bench play some minutes.

But there’s probably no better way to expose the Rockets youth than to set the bar at 60. If a team can’t routinely score that many points, it’s usually not exactly a hopeful sign.

Consider: of the 330 teams in Division I last year, 311 of them averaged at least 60 points. Toledo was one of the 19 who weren’t (59.2). In more than half of their games (18 of 32) they ended with 59 points or fewer. In all fairness, the 60-point threshold was met in 9 of their 13 home games. But with four of their top six scorers graduating, who will account for the 67 percent of points that either have diplomas or left the team?

In my day, BGSU basketball games offered free McDonald’s fries if the team reached 85 points. This was achieved only once last year by the Falcons at Anderson Arena, and they scored at least 80 two other times. This is the carrot dangled in front of the typical ADHD fan. Of course, you can’t lure people with free carrots. Junk food is more effective.

Perhaps 85 is too much to ask in Savage Arena (UT hasn’t netted 85 at home since November 30, 2005 against IPFW) but putting it at 60 could demoralize the Rockets. Admittedly they made it to 62 on Saturday against EIU, but it was a struggle. Perhaps something like 70 points is a more reasonable “treat,” and the sliding scale can be such that when Gene Cross’s team starts winning more games and shooting better, then they can increment the coupon milestone.

Note: I plan on live blogging select UT men’s basketball home games this season on Twitter. Follow @rockethoops to enjoy this free public service.

It’s the perfect game for little kids because it’s entirely impractical for adults to play.

Can you imagine grown men playing kickball? It would take 15 minutes just to retrieve every home run, and this would occur during every at bat.

Normally, the teams were divided up by counting off: one, two, one, two, one, two. But, every year, around the Ohio State-Michigan game, the teams were drawn up much more democratically: It was Ohio State vs. Michigan, and this was the one time where the teams were not equal in size.

My choice was Ohio State, not for any reasons that had to do with Eddie George or Bobby Hoying.

Frankly, I didn’t know who those people were, and I didn’t really care for football until high school.

The reason was simple: this was the early 90s, and since Gary Moeller’s Wolverines were kicking some serious scarlet and gray tail, about 20 kids would pick the “Michigan” team, while there’d be about eight for playing for “Ohio State.”

School is all about fitting in with the group, but you didn’t have to whip through long division math tests to know that on a smaller team, a kid gets to kick the ball so many more times.

And this was my ironclad logic.

Today, my kickball days are well behind me, so my allegiance toward one team or the other is null and void.

Friends ask me who I’m rooting for, and I say, “just a good game.”

When Ohio State plays Michigan, I have no dog in the fight. I’m pretty sure this is illegal to admit in public.

People who don’t vote in presidential elections must feel the same way. “What do you mean you don’t care who wins? Our country’s future is at stake!” But in this case, you just swap out the latter sentence with “It’s Ohio State-Michigan!”

I’m sure there are others who merely enjoy the game without taking a side. I’m also sure that group is as much a minority as the “Ohio State” kickball team was back in the day.

It’s not apathy; far from it. In 2006, both teams were 11-0 and ranked No. 1 and No. 2, with a win all but guaranteeing a chance to play for the national championship.

Ohio State won 42-39, and I was convinced after that game — and for whatever stubborn reason, still do to this day — that the championship game should’ve been a rematch between the two teams.

The rivalry, in most years, feeds the competition and launches it into the stratosphere.

Some years, admittedly, this does not happen, such as last year, when Ohio State walked all over Rich Rodriguez’s Wolverines 42-7, or in 1902 when Michigan rolled up 15 touchdowns en route to an 86-0 walloping. And this was back when touchdowns were just five points.

And lopsided games like those usually motivates the losing team to try that much harder the next year. Or so we all like to believe.

And so it brings us to this year. Do we want to see Ohio State snag another Rose Bowl appearance? Or do we want to see Michigan’s season end on a strong note after languishing through October?

It doesn’t really matter to me. Let the game be close in the fourth quarter, and if I pray to the correct football god, let it be decided in the final two minutes. Or the final play. Or overtime.

Or maybe it is proper to cheer for Michigan. If Ohio State wins, it’ll be six years in a row they beat the young men from Ann Arbor.

They say rivalries are rivalries because they go back and forth. And after all, nobody wants to see the “Michigan” kickball team suddenly become outnumbered.

Meet Freddie Barnes. A converted quarterback, the BGSU senior caught 14 passes for 176 yards and a touchdown in a 24-10 loss to Central Michigan. The total brought him up 99 catches, a number which is quite ridiculous to comprehend. Take away his 22-reception game against Kent State, and he still leads the country. He also leads the country in total yards (1,054), yards per game (131.8) and receiving touchdowns (nine). And on Monday afternoon he was named one of 10 semifinalists for the Biletnikoff Award, given to college football’s top receiver. The list will be narrowed down to three on November 19.

The last MAC wide receiver to win the Biletnikoff was Marshall’s Randy Moss in 1998, and the last finalist from the MAC was Ball State’s Dante Ridgeway in 2004. One has to think Barnes has has a better-than-good chance to win it, considering how far ahead stat-wise he is this season. He has 37 more receptions and 173 more receiving yards than the second place guy in those respective categories. BGSU enjoys a bye for Halloween weekend, but the task of catching Barnes in catches borders on Sisyphean.

Winning the Biletnikoff would be nice, but somebody wins that every year. What doesn’t happen annually is the chance to set the NCAA record for receptions in a season, held by the indefatigable Manny Hazard, who collected 142 for Houston in 1989. Currently Barnes is on pace to shatter it. It’s not a shoe-in that Barnes can collect 43 passes in their final four games (a bowl game, which would certainly help, is probably wishful thinking), but that’s only 10.75 receptions per game, which is lower than his current average of 12.375.

Next week, I’m letting a blind chicken, or perhaps a baseball umpire, make my selections.

Week 5 Results

Ohio 44, Bowling Green 37

Actual margin of victory: Ohio by 7

Sportsbook’s prediction: Bowling Green by 3 (off by 10 points)

Sussman’s prediction: Bowling Green by 5 (off by 12 points)

Toledo 37, Ball State 30

Actual margin of victory: Toledo by 7

Sportsbook’s prediction: Toledo by 6 (off by 1)

Sussman’s prediction: Toledo by 22 (off by 15)

It was a banner week for the bookies, missing by just a combined 11 points, while yours truly was incorrect by 27 points, which, sadly, was my second best week so far. No, really, this is harder than it looks. I’ve been off by an average of 15.2 points per game. I think I know what I’m doing wrong. I’m not picking BG to blow anybody out.

Week 6

Western Michigan at Toledo, 7 p.m. Saturday

Talk about cheating death last week. It took a last-second miracle to win at Ball State, but in the end Aaron Opelt’s stats look amazing. This team is incapable of scoring less than 30 points, unless you’re Ohio State. Meanwhile, WMU also has a vaunted offense, but it hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, scoring just 20 per game. The Tim Hiller-Juan Nunez tandem is really due for some action. And the charitable UT defense is all about giving points. It’ll be another fun night at the Glass Bowl with a wild scoring finish, and it just seems like Toledo’s year.

The Sportsbook Spread: Toledo by 9

My Spread: Toledo by 7

Bowling Green at Kent State, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

Any other year and this looks like a romp for BG. Historically Kent State is not that good, and even the bookies agree, by labeling them the underdog at home. And at 1-4, the Falcons don’t look all that impressive either, with that lone opening week game being the only victory to their name. For all I know, Kent State will probably win this one, sinking Tim Clawson’s first season at Bowling Green deeper into despair. But I just made a resolution picking more BG blowouts, so forget all the pessimism.

The Sportsbook Spread: Bowling Green by 1½

My Spread: Bowling Green by 17

Got a better prediction? Then lay it on me in the comments.

Slight improvement. Baby steps. Come November I’m going to be a pro at this.

Week 4 Results

Toledo 41, Florida International 31

Actual margin of victory: UT by 10

Sportsbook’s prediction: FIU by 1 (off by 11 points)

Sussman’s prediction: Toledo by 16 (off by 6 points)

Boise State 49, Bowling Green 14

Actual margin of victory: Boise State by 35

Sportsbook’s prediction: Boise State by 16½ (off by 18½)

Sussman’s prediction: Boise State by 13 (off by 22)

For the week, I just barely out-guessed the bookies, 29½-28, but they continue to lead 125-104½. Clearly I need to stop having faith in the Falcons, but that goes against everything my diploma says to do. So I just have to put additional faith in UT football. Not a problem.

And hey, isn’t it about time these guys finally face off against their MAC friends?

Week 5

Toledo at Ball State, 12 noon Saturday

These are not the Cardinals that the nation (and David Letterman) came to know and love last year. They lost two games all of 2008, but this year they’re already 0-4. It’s a painful rebuilding year for a team that finally scored more than 20 points in a game last week against Auburn. But by the time they reached that mark, the Tigers already had 47 of their own. Ball State’s 267.8 yards on offense a game is fourth worst in the Bowl Subdivision.

Meanwhile, UT has the country’s fifth best passing game, by yardage (473.3/game) and has failed to score fewer than 31 points in every game except Ohio State. They’ll score at will, but since UT has given up at least 31 points in every game, the Cardinals will get their points too.

Sportsbook Spread: Toledo by 5

My Spread: Toledo by 22

Ohio at Bowling Green, 4 p.m. Saturday

The Bobcats (2-2) have a better record than the Falcons (1-3), primarily because they’ve played some stiffer competition. Ohio has had a chance to win every game they’ve played, mostly in part to the MAC-best 13 turnovers their defense has forced. While teams like UT and Central Michigan will simply blow away the competition, Ohio plays a very annoying, irritating game (for the opposition).

Still, this is a game BGSU has to win. They played some tough competition but should’ve won at Missouri and Marshall. Tyler Sheehan is second only to UT’s Aaron Opelt in passing yards per game and Freddie Barnes is averaging over 11 receptions a game. The offense is more talented and therefore more capable to score. If the defense can clear the Boise State game from their minds, they still have the ability to make some stops. Ohio’s style of play will dictate the low score, but the home field advantage will push the Falcons over the top.

The Sportsbook Spread: BGSU by 3

My Spread: BGSU by 5

Have any other brilliant insights? Share away in the comments.

Note to self: invent games only if you know you’re going to be good at it.

Week 3 Results

Ohio State 38, Toledo 0

Actual margin of victory: OSU by 38

Sportsbook’s prediction: OSU by 20.5 (off by 17.5 points)

Sussman’s prediction: OSU by 13 (off by 25 points)

Marshall 17, Bowling Green 10

Actual margin of victory: Marshall by 7

Sportsbook’s prediction: Marshall by 3 (4 points)

Sussman’s prediction: Bowling Green by 7 (14 points)

The bookies win the week 39-21.5, and if these posts were actual money, at least one of my knees would be broken by now. For the season the sportsbook is ahead 97-75. It looks bad, but I’m just one wacky prediction coming true away from being back in this. What’s that? The eighth-ranked team in the country plays BG? That qualifies!

Week 4

Toledo at Florida International, 7 p.m. Saturday

This is a revenge game for the Rockets, who let FIU temporarily control the Glass Bowl last year in a 35-16 victory. The Golden Panthers are 0-2 this year, with road losses to Alabama and Rutgers, so their home opener is their best chance to get in the win column so far. However, after licking their wounds from Ohio State, UT is out with something to prove.

Even though it was against superior competition, FIU is only scoring 14.5 points per game. Despite that nasty shutout, UT is still averaging 28.3 per game against BCS conference teams. That offense will bounce back in remarkable ways against a mid-level Sun Belt Conference opponent. And with no proven running backs in the Golden Panthers’ arsenal, the Rockets secondary is going to have a field day defending the pass. After this game, Barry Church might want to play in Miami more often.

The Sportsbook Spread: FIU by 1

My Spread: Toledo by 16

No. 8 Boise State at Bowling Green, 7 p.m. Saturday

Boise State is officially the Gonzaga of college football. They’re the mid-major that “made it” on the national scene. It took year after disrespected year, but an undefeated season will probably mean the Blue Man Group could contend for a BCS title. Consider: when they upset Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl to finish undefeated, they came into that game ranked ninth. There are two things I would love nothing more to see this year:

(1) Boise State playing for a national championship, and

(2) BG winning this game.

Sadly, these two events are mutually exclusive and only one is grounded in reality. The Falcons are going to get pulverized in this game. However, the one surprising facet of this year’s BGSU team has been — and this is unexpected given Dave Clawson’s offensive expertise — the defense. They’re allowing less than 20 points per game against some pretty solid competition. The 40 points per game average for the Broncos may go down slightly in this game. They can probably hold Boise to 30 points, but don’t look for BG to light up the scoreboard against a team that shut out Miami University and let Oregon score just eight.

The Sportsbook Spread: Boise State by 16.5

My Spread: Boise State by 12

Think you can do better than me? Clearly you can’t do worse. Share your predictions in the comments.

OSU Coach Jim Tressel, photographed by Steve France, FOX Toledo

Ohio State has always had a stranglehold on this fair land. The last time they lost an in-state game was 1921 against the mighty Oberlin College Yeomen (That’s a fantastic team nickname, by the way). There may not be a more populous state in which one team reigned longer and stronger. Ohio has more bowl subdivision teams (eight) than any state except Texas (10). You’d think that, at some point in the past 88 years, one of them would have had a better day than the Buckeyes.
Maybe it’s simply hard luck. Since OSU schedules nonconference opponents well ahead of time (they already have a game with Tennessee in 2019), it’s also entirely possible they have some arcane knowledge of when in-state teams will be at their worst. Or it could be the snowball effect of desperation like the Chicago Cubs. Or perhaps the thrill of the chase clouds the ability to succeed like the Trix Rabbit.
But the “Family Feud” most popular reason is probably that the game is almost always played in Columbus. Other than the Sept. 19 game against UT in Cleveland and against Cincinnati (at the Bengals’ Paul Brown Stadium) in 2002, Ohio State has never traveled anywhere else in Ohio to play football since 1934 (Not like that matters. The entire state is their backyard.)
In the next five years, the Buckeyes will face at least six Ohio schools. Do any of them have a chance at breaking the streak?
n Sept. 18, 2010 vs. Ohio: The Bobcats are nothing to write home about, except when Terrelle Pryor tells his mother about how many rushing touchdowns he will score against them.
n Sept. 3, 2011 vs. Akron: The last time the Zips went to Columbus, they scored all of two points. That’s all you need to know.
n Sept. 10, 2011 vs. Toledo: Then again, the Rockets would have killed for two points last week. But they still have time. 2011 will be Tim Beckman’s third year coaching UT, which is generally a statement season. And with the way Jim Tressel coaches during big games, the Buckeyes may be in a state of flux by then, the same way Michigan was last year.
The stars may align for something special on this day. Mark your calendar if you are over-prepared and already bought one for this year. The diploma on my wall, however, tells me this will be a 41-0 victory for the scarlet and gray.
n Sept. 1, 2012 vs. Miami University: Probably by then the RedHawks will not be giving up 40 points a game. But it’s not like Ben Roethlisberger will be going back to school for his master’s any time soon.
n Sept. 8, 2012 vs. Cincinnati: By 2012, the Cincy-OSU matchup should be a lot like Michigan State vs. Michigan, meaning it’s promising, but still not living up to expectations.
n Date TBA, 2014 vs. Kent State: Everyone who will play for the Golden Flashes in 2014 is currently in high school, if that. And the program has never been that great. However, since nobody can predict what will happen that far into the sports future — and, in five years nobody’s going to remember this — I can safely assume that Kent State will beat Ohio State and end the then-93-year reign of supremacy in Ohio, provided they change their mascot to the Golden Yeomen, which they will.

I don’t even want to ask how we did last week. But sadly, that’s how this thing is played.

Toledo 54, Colorado 38

Actual margin of victory: UT by 16

Sportsbook’s prediction: Colorado by 4 (off by 20 points)

Sussman’s prediction: Colorady by 13 (off by 29 points)

Missouri 27, Bowling Green 20

Actual margin of victory: Missouri by 7

Sportsbook’s prediction: Missouri by 20 (13 points)

Sussman’s prediction: Missouri by 16 (9 points)

This is why I would make a great weatherman. I was off by a total of 38 points, compared to the sportsbook’s 33. With the lowest score winning, the bookies are ahead 58-53½ for the season. It’s still anyone’s game, but this is shaping up to be, instead of a battle of wits, a war of who’s the least stupid.

Week 3

Ohio State vs. Toledo at Cleveland Browns Stadium, noon Saturday

The anticipation of this game has been simmering on the cauldron for over three years, ever since these two teams agreed to a home-and-sorta-home in 2009 and 2011. It’s almost impossible to gauge where college football teams will be in three years, but back in 2006, I think we could have expected both of these teams to be exactly where they are. Toledo has a lot of respect, having scored 85 points in two weeks against BCS teams.

Ohio State, meanwhile, is still the class of the Big Ten and is being laughed at by the rest of the world. After the Navy and USC games, Jim Tressel’s under a lot of pressure (if you believe this very well-crafted post by Chris Brown). They’re going to have to blow UT out of the water if they want any respect back. A 20-point margin of victory is probably a good line the Buckeyes will have to surpass if they want to redeem enough respect, but the catch-22 is that it probably will be closer than that.

But if the Rockets win this game, the “Pardon The Interruption” Twitter may be right in that aspiring band members could have a new dream.

The Sportsbook Spread: OSU by 20½

My Spread: OSU by 13

Bowling Green at Marshall, 7 p.m. Saturday

Hey, Remember Marshall? They were that team that swooped into the MAC back in ‘97 and immediately won a conference title. They went onto win five conference titles in six years, and ever since they joined the “better” Conference USA, they’ve always sustained a losing record. This is Marshall’s first game against MAC team in five years, so it’ll be just like old times. The best case scenario is if those old times are from 2004, when BG beat the Thundering Herd 56-35.

As for the Falcons, they’ve proved quite convincingly they can play an incredible half of football, but then forget how to move the ball forward in the other half. They had a 13-6 halftime lead over the 25th ranked Missouri Tigers last week, and even went up 20-6, but the final 21 points were scored by the Fighting Pinkels. There’s a big loss in the Falcons secondary without P.J. Mahone, who was suspended for the ever-mysterious “violation of team rules.” Hopefully the offense can account for the loss in defense, or however that saying goes.

The oddsmakers are giving the slight edge to the home team. I fervently disagree with those scoundrels and question their body odor.

The Sportsbook Spread: Marshall by 3

My Spread: Bowling Green by 7

If you have better, sassier predictions, I’m all eyes.

Now, how did everybody do?

Bowling Green 31, Troy 14

Actual margin of victory: BGSU by 17
Sportsbook’s prediction: BGSU by 7 (10 points)
Sussman’s prediction: BGSU by 4 (13 points)

Purdue 52, Toledo 31

Actual margin of victory: Purdue by 21
Sportsbook’s prediction: Purdue by 10½ (10½ points)
Sussman’s prediction: Purdue by 14 (7 points)

It’s very close, but so far I am beating the sportsbooks, 20½-20 after one week. I will not let this false sense of superiority over Vegas get to my head, but I can probably assume my vast knowledge of college football will help me prevail over the evil gamblers.

Week 2

UT at Colorado, 9 p.m. Friday

Do you like lots and lots of points? Sure, everybody does. And you’re in luck, because in the last few years, the Rockets have been gracious enough to let the visiting team score at least 50 points at least three times in the past two seasons. Colorado, meanwhile, got embarrassed in its home opener against Colorado State. The momentum for both teams seem to be going in opposite directions (Toledo shows promise, while CU does not), but something tells me a letdown is in order, even though UT head coach Tim Beckman knows a thing or two about beating Big XII teams.

The Sportsbook Spread: Colorado by 4

My Spread: Colorado by 13

BGSU at No. 25 Missouri, 7 p.m. Saturday

Speaking of getting thumped by Big XII teams, the trend of BGSU claiming victory over teams coached by Gary Pinkel will likely end on this night. Even though the Falcons beat the Tigers in ‘01 and ‘02, that was a long time ago when Urban Meyer was just a hip young coach with a dream as big as the sky. The way the Falcons played against Troy was quite surprising to me, but don’t expect any 31-point streaks against fierce competition. Expect Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert to have a field day.

The Sportsbook Spread: Missouri by 20

My Spread: Missouri by 16

Feel free to play along in the comments.

Betting on college sports seems rather tawdry, and fantasy college football is extremely nerdy. Yet combining the two pastimes could create a fun game for the whole family.

I’m terrible with names (Exhibit A: the name of this blog) so let’s call the game “Beat The Spread.” The premise is simple, and you can play along with your friends:

1. Pick your favorite team.
2. Predict who will win each game, and by how many points.
3. Find a set of popular sportsbooks (we’ll use the ones Yahoo! Sports shares with the world) and select the spread most bookies agree on
4. For every point you are off, give yourself one point. (The more points, the worse you’re doing.) So, if you say “Bowling Green by 50 points” (a popular pick) and they only win by three, you have 47 points. If you say “Toledo by three,” and they lose by three, you get six points. (Learning to subtract negative numbers in high school is finally being put to use!) Do the same arithmetic for the sportsbooks and their spread.
5. Keep track of your points throughout the season, as well as for the sportsbooks.

If you want to use teams that obviously aren’t on the books, such as high school or smaller universities, just play for bragging rights. For the purposes of this blog, we’ll track UT and BG games.

Week 1

BGSU vs. Troy, Thursday 7 p.m.

“The Falcons have an experienced quarterback, a dangerous offense, and a very suspect defense.” You could cut and paste this season preview from any of the past seven years and you’d be accurate. It indeed applies to the 2009 team. You could say the same thing about Troy (neé Troy State) being the Sun Belt frontrunner. This may actually be a very fun game to watch for the casual onlooker. For Falcons fans, however, it may be so heart-wrenching, those with pacemakers are recommended not to tune in.

The Sportsbook Spread: BGSU by 7
My Spread: BGSU by 4

UT at Purdue, Saturday 12 noon

I don’t mean to dump on Tim Beckman and his new team — trust me, it happens subliminally — and I realize that basketball and football are completely different sports, but if UT hoops head coach Gene Cross had difficulty immersing the incumbent seniors into a new style of coaching, then Beckman might have some turbulence early on with a team peppered with upperclassmen. New Purdue coach Danny Hope at least had a year on staff with Joe Tiller before he resigned to acclimate himself with the system. An upset would be great for the MAC, but something tells me Purdue will pull away and never look back.

The Sportsbook Spread: Purdue by 10 1/2
My Spread: Purdue by 14

For those who want to play along in the comments, feel free and I’ll track your progress too. Tune in next week when football players make me look stupid and entire Rockets fanbase makes thinly veiled insults about my face.