Previewing and predicting the Golden GlobesWritten by James A. Molnar | The Gold Knight | firstname.lastname@example.org
It’s time for bacchanalian party of the year: the Golden Globe Awards. Ricky Gervais is the ringleader for the third year of an evening where celebrities eat and, notably, drink — an awards show without the required gravitas. Two years ago, Gervais was the first host in 15 years for the show by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). After last year’s show, where Gervais pulled all the punches on the nominees and stars in the room, many thought the HFPA would not invite him back. Alas, the organization did and viewers will again see a smug Gervais beer in hand ready to dish some jokes.
Toledo Free Press pop culture guru Jeff McGinnis and entertainment contributor Michael Siebenaler join this awards show junkie in trying to predict the unpredictable Golden Globes.
Jeff McGinnis: Okay, I’ll be honest. The Golden Globes are a total crapshoot. No matter what you think the obvious trends are leading into award season, the choices of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association are sure to throw quite a few curveballs your way. It’s not like the Oscars, where you can basically pick up on signs and figure out where the vote will go. There are so many variables and bizarre quirks to the Golden Globes that predictions are virtually useless. The globe on top of the statue might as well be a lotto ball. That said, here are my (surely to be wrong) predictions for the big categories.
Michael Siebenaler: Will my sides split from laughing at host Ricky Gervais or cringe from his awkward moments and insults? Probably both. Will Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt win? No. Will one of them win? Yes. Will Morgan Freeman be gracious as he accepts the Cecil B. DeMille Award? Of course, who does not like that voice? (Though, he couldn’t quite save “Conan the Barbarian” from the box office cellar last year.)
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
James: It’s George Clooney’s year. But Brad Pitt may have the HFPA seeing stars.
Jeff: George Clooney. Common sense leans toward either George Clooney for “The Descendants” or Brad Pitt for “Moneyball,” but again, what does common sense have to do with anything here? I’ll go with my gut and say Clooney’s momentum is too strong.
Michael: Brad Pitt for “Moneyball” (Clooney will get the Oscar)
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
James: Viola Davis for “The Help” would give a better speech (and is on her way to the Oscars), but Meryl Streep is the frontrunner.
Jeff: Meryl Streep. The Meryl Streep factor will be put to the test first here. People love her work, but haven’t exactly loved the movie it’s in. Can the HFPA put aside its disdain for the movie to honor a great performance? Maybe not, but then, who else is there who stands out in this category?
Michael: Meryl Streep for “The Iron Lady.” Glenn Close will get her win for Best Song.
BEST ACTOR (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
James: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist.”
Jeff: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist.” By contrast, there are a lot of really good performances in this category. I’d love to see Joseph Gordon-Levitt get a nod for his work in “50/50,” but I think the bandwagon for “The Artist” is too strong, especially among the HFPA voters. If they love “Midnight in Paris” that much, MAYBE Owen Wilson is a spoiler here. But I don’t think so.
Michael: Jean Dujardin for “The Artist,” definitely a rising star. I loved him in the OSS 117 films — check them out on Netflix!
BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
James: Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn.” Sorry, Kristen Wiig.
Jeff: Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn.” I have to think this one’s pretty cut and dried — Michelle Williams has been talked up as Oscar bait since “My Week with Marilyn” premiered — but there’s some talk of Charlize Theron picking this one up for “Young Adult.” I don’t know, did that movie garner enough love from the press for that? Still leaning toward Williams.
Michael: Kristen Wiig for “Bridesmaids,” it’s an “SNL” sweep! Well, except for Tina Fey.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
James: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners.” He should also get the Oscar.
Michael: Christopher Plummer for “Beginners,” although I would love to see Albert Brooks get it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
James: Octavia Spencer, “The Help.”
Michael: Octavia Spencer for “The Help,” just edges out Bérénice Bejo for “The Arist.”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
James: Hard to predict what the HFPA will do, but I say “Rango.”
Jeff: “The Adventures of Tintin.” Of this group, it has to be “The Adventures of Tintin,” right? I can’t see “Puss in Boots” or “Arthur Christmas” winning it, “Cars 2″ was the first Pixar movie that got tepid reviews, and “Rango” came out so long ago. And it’s Spielberg.
Michael: “The Adventures of Tintin”: Spielberg has to win something
BEST FOREIGN LANUAGE FILM
James: “A Separation.”
Michael: “A Separation,” though I would love to see Zhang Yimou’s “The Flowers of War” win. Director Jolie could win with her “In the Land of Blood and Honey.”
James: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist,” although Martin Scorsese for “Hugo” could be the upset.
Jeff: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist.” Martin Scorsese and Woody Allen both turned in great movies, but “The Artist” is just too hot right now, methinks. Michel Hazanavicius (thank god for spell check) will win and keep the momentum rolling.
Michael: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist.” What an amazing film with an amazing behind-the-scenes story.
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
James: Again, it’s hard to know which way the voters will swing, but
Jeff: “The Descendants.” Many of these — if not all — will be Oscar nominees, but only one is a really serious contender: “The Descendants.” The voters may love to throw a huge curveball and give it to “Hugo,” but I think conventional wisdom will prevail. I’d love to see “Moneyball” get some love, but I think Clooney’s drama will take the prize.
Michael: “The Descendants,” the likely Oscar winner. Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash should also win for screenplay for “The Descendants.”
BEST PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
James: “The Artist.”
Jeff: “The Arists.” Same basic concept here, only more blatant. “The Artist” is the one with all the momentum, and the actual Oscar contender. Now watch it be “Bridesmaids,” just to spite me.
Michael: “The Artist”: Amazing result for a big risk filming largely a silent film.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES (DRAMA)
James: I haven’t seen any of these show, but HBO is always a good choice. “Boardwalk Empire” has the history to win, but “Game of Thrones” may do it.
Jeff: “Boardwalk Empire.” Okay, now this is interesting. Basically, it’s a two horse race between “Game of Thrones” and “Boardwalk Empire,” unless Showtime’s hype campaign for “Boss” has worked some magic. What will the HFPA lean toward? Toss a coin…
Michael: “Boardwalk Empire”: great production values and acting.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
James: “Glee” won it last year, but “Modern Family” will win this year.
Jeff: “Modern Family,” almost by default. Nothing wrong with “Glee” or “New Girl,” but I can’t see these voters embracing them this year.
Michael: “Modern Family”: cannot get more laughs in 22 minutes.
Other TV categories by Michael:
Best Actress — Drama: Claire Danes for “Homeland,” continues her winning streak.
Best Actor — Drama: Bryan Cranston for “Breaking Bad.” No Hugh Laurie? OK, Cranston deserves it.
Best Actress — Comedy or Musical: Amy Poehler for “Parks and Recreation.” Fey is so proud her fellow SNL alum wins.
Best Actor — Comedy or Musical: John Galecki for “The Big Band Theory.” “Geeks” rule!
Best Mini-Series or Made-for-TV Movie: “Downton Abbey” … go PBS!
The Golden Globe Awards will air LIVE coast-to-coast on Sunday, Jan. 15, 2012, on NBC from 5:00-8:00 p.m. (PST) /8:00-11:00 p.m. (EST) from the Beverly Hilton Hotel with host Ricky Gervais.
Find all of the nominations at GoldenGlobes.org.