Almost everything is set in stone, except where it’s totally up in the air. (No pun intended.)
As we’ll see, most Oscar predictors seem to be solid for the vast majority of the major categories — you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who disagrees about any of the acting awards or Best Director. It’s the big one that is still a huge question mark. Thanks to a year of major upheavals in the nomination and voting process — ten nominees, a new “ranking” system — Best Picture is still decidedly undecided. “Avatar” and “Hurt Locker” stand as the favorites, but a solid case could be made for two, maybe three other movies to take the top slot, as no one knows what the implications of all the changes will be. If the Academy wanted viewers to find Oscar less predictable, the mission mostly failed. But for the last award of the night, mission accomplished.
Best Original Screenplay:
First things first: “Inglourious Basterds” is, indeed, an original screenplay. Even though the movie’s title is based upon a previous Italian film, the two movies have almost no real connection beyond that. Okay? Cool. Now, onto business — “Basterds” and “Hurt Locker” are the two real favorites here. “Locker” just won the Writer’s Guild award, which should be a solid indication, but some members of the Academy may want to honor Tarantino for “Basterds,” and this may be their best chance. Could be, but I think the “Locker” bandwagon is too strong right now.
Prediction: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Here, it’s less of a race. The two front-runners are almost certainly “Precious” and “Up in the Air.” As much praise as “Precious” has received, it has almost no buzz for its screenplay, and it has a bigger award coming up here shortly. Meanwhile, “Up in the Air” is also very highly regarded, but other films are clearly slated for the larger prizes, so if the Academy wants to honor it, this is the place. Besides, it also won the Writer’s Guild.
Prediction: “Up in the Air”
Best Animated Film:
“Up.” Bank on it. It won’t win Best Picture, so it’ll win here. If you’re looking for a long-shot bet for the Oscar pool, the spoiler may be “Coraline,” but most probably not.
Prediction: “Up”
Best Supporting Actor:
Here’s our first complete no-brainer. “Invictus” fell totally off the radar, so Matt Damon isn’t winning. Woody Harrelson would be a great story, but how many saw “The Messenger?” Ditto Christopher Plummer. Stanley Tucci is one of our best actors, but his work was at the service of a pretty reviled film in “Lovely Bones.” Meanwhile, here’s Christoph Waltz, who it was said would win Best Supporting Actor back when the film was first screened at Cannes, and nothing in the interim months has changed that impression.
Prediction: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress:
Again, you gotta follow the crowd on this one. Penelope Cruz’s work is overshadowed by the fact that almost no one really liked “Nine.” Maggie Gyllenhaal was a crucial part of “Crazy Heart,” but her co-star is slated for a bigger prize. Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick both were huge parts of “Up in the Air,” but traditionally co-nominees in one category cancel each other out. That leaves Mo’Nique, who stunned many viewers with her powerful work in “Precious,” and this is basically the Academy’s lone chance to honor the film.
Prediction: Mo’Nique
Best Actor:
The spoiler here may be Jeremy Renner, amazing in the electrifying “Hurt Locker,” but that film has a bigger prize (prizes?) in store. Colin Firth isn’t winning, neither is Morgan Freeman — even if “Invictus” had more of a buzz around it, Freeman won just a few years ago. Clooney was a major contender for this award when “Up in the Air” first screened, but then folks saw “Crazy Heart,” and Jeff Bridges has been so good for so long, and he’s never won the big one. This is his year.
Prediction: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress:
Well, here’s a fine reversal of fortune. Despite boasting Helen Mirren, who has long been one of our finest performers, and two tremendous newcomers — Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious” and Carey Mulligan in “An Education” — the solid front-runner for this award seemed to be Meryl Streep for many moons, despite the relatively flimsy nature of “Julie and Julia.” Then, the public started seeing “The Blind Side.” And seeing it. And seeing it. And making it a Best Picture nominee. And putting Sandra Bullock right at the head of the pack. Streep may still pull it out, but Bullock’s got the momentum and is the better story. And she really has the audience to thank for this one.
Prediction: Sandra Bullock
Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker.” She’s got history (she’d be the first woman ever to win the award) and tradition (she won the Director’s Guild award, which is almost always an accurate predictor of this category). And she made the best film of the bunch.
Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow
Best Picture:
Let’s assume that we can narrow our gaze to the five films also nominated for Best Director, as most everything else on this ballot are really long-shots at best. “Precious” is probably the least likely of those contenders. “Up in the Air” was a solid contender two months ago, but time seems to have dulled its chances. “Basterds” may be the spoiler —if the top two contenders end up splitting the votes, that may open the door for a film that gets high marks from most everyone, but no real “top” rankings, to win the award. It may not be likely, but with this year’s bizarre new rules, who knows?
But the biggest contenders here are two films that could scarcely be more different. “Avatar,” now the reigning all-time box-office champ, a big-budget sci-fi blockbuster about the colonization of another world. “The Hurt Locker,” a small thriller that has scarcely cracked $16 million worldwide, about a bomb squad in Iraq. Both are quality films, both deserve to be in this position. Both have many reasons they should win. In a traditional year, the logic leans toward “Avatar,” which has won the endorsement of its audience and has all the momentum in the world behind it. Usually, a film as small as “Locker” is a major underdog against a cultural juggernaut.
But “Locker” has several big factors going for it. One, it’s the critical darling, and has won almost every critics’ award there is. Two, it also has a major amount of momentum, with wins from the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild. Three, Bigelow is certainly winning Best Director, which usually indicates Picture. Four, there is a distinct backlash brewing against “Avatar,” even among those who admire it, indicating it may have peaked too early. Five, of some importance, “Locker” is indeed the best of the ten films nominated here.

But, biggest of all, the new judging system may tilt things in “Locker”‘s favor. Anti-”Avatar” sentiment may lead some voters to put the film toward the bottom of their rankings, thus skewing the math against it. That means that, in a traditional year, “Avatar” may have won Best Picture by getting the most votes for it. But this year, those may end up being offset by those who vote against it. Ironically enough, in a year where the Academy changed everything and bent over backward in a transparent attempt to give more “mainstream” movies a chance, those new rules themselves may end up costing the biggest mainstream movie ever the top prize.
Prediction: “The Hurt Locker”
And the rest…
Leaving out the short subjects and Best Foreign Language film, as I haven’t been able to see any of the nominees. (Note, however, that I’m rooting for “A Matter of Loaf and Death,” the new Wallace & Gromit film, to win Best Animated Short. Go, Nick Park!)
Art Direction: “The Young Victoria.” is my guess, though a technical awards sweep may give this to “Avatar.”
Cinematography: “Avatar,” though how much of it was actually “filmed?”
Costume Design: “The Young Victoria.” Always go for the period piece.
Documentary Feature: “Food, Inc.”
Editing: “Avatar.”
Makeup: “Star Trek.” Always go for the one that used the most latex.
Original Score: “Avatar,” probably, though I’d love to see “Sherlock’s” original orchestrations win this one.
Original Song: “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart.”
Sound Editing: “Avatar.”
Sound Mixing: “Avatar.”
Visual Effects: “Avatar.”
Jeff McGinnis is featured at 7 a.m. Wednesdays on the 92.5 KISS FM Andrew Z show.