“Beat The Spread,” Week 6: Diminished expectationsWritten by Matt Sussman | | firstname.lastname@example.org
It’s time again to play “Beat the Spread” with UT and BG football. For a refresher on the rules, consult the introductory article.
Next week, I’m letting a blind chicken, or perhaps a baseball umpire, make my selections.
Week 5 Results
Ohio 44, Bowling Green 37
Actual margin of victory: Ohio by 7
Sportsbook’s prediction: Bowling Green by 3 (off by 10 points)
Sussman’s prediction: Bowling Green by 5 (off by 12 points)
Toledo 37, Ball State 30
Actual margin of victory: Toledo by 7
Sportsbook’s prediction: Toledo by 6 (off by 1)
Sussman’s prediction: Toledo by 22 (off by 15)
It was a banner week for the bookies, missing by just a combined 11 points, while yours truly was incorrect by 27 points, which, sadly, was my second best week so far. No, really, this is harder than it looks. I’ve been off by an average of 15.2 points per game. I think I know what I’m doing wrong. I’m not picking BG to blow anybody out.
Western Michigan at Toledo, 7 p.m. Saturday
Talk about cheating death last week. It took a last-second miracle to win at Ball State, but in the end Aaron Opelt’s stats look amazing. This team is incapable of scoring less than 30 points, unless you’re Ohio State. Meanwhile, WMU also has a vaunted offense, but it hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, scoring just 20 per game. The Tim Hiller-Juan Nunez tandem is really due for some action. And the charitable UT defense is all about giving points. It’ll be another fun night at the Glass Bowl with a wild scoring finish, and it just seems like Toledo’s year.
The Sportsbook Spread: Toledo by 9
My Spread: Toledo by 7
Bowling Green at Kent State, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Any other year and this looks like a romp for BG. Historically Kent State is not that good, and even the bookies agree, by labeling them the underdog at home. And at 1-4, the Falcons don’t look all that impressive either, with that lone opening week game being the only victory to their name. For all I know, Kent State will probably win this one, sinking Tim Clawson’s first season at Bowling Green deeper into despair. But I just made a resolution picking more BG blowouts, so forget all the pessimism.
The Sportsbook Spread: Bowling Green by 1½
My Spread: Bowling Green by 17
Got a better prediction? Then lay it on me in the comments.