Mayoral math
Written by Tom Pounds | President / Publisher | tpounds@toledofreepress.comNearly 42,000 Toledoans voted in the 2005 mayoral primary election. That race featured eventual winner Carty Finkbeiner and then-incumbent Jack Ford nudging out late entrant Keith Wilkowski.
This September, there will be at least five major choices on the mayoral ballot. We can hope and assume more voters will turn out for the primary; let’s say as many as 50,000 cast their votes.
With longtime police officer and Toledo City Councilman D. Michael Collins running as an independent, that number is now open to be split at least five ways. Mike Bell, Ben Konop, Jim Moody and Wilkowski just found themselves fighting even more fiercely for every vote. The early read so far is that Wilkowski has been consistent with his message; Konop has been masterful at keeping himself in the news; Bell is steady but not making great splashes; and Moody is doing his best to rally the area’s Republican minority.
If 50,000 votes are cast and end up being split, a candidate could theoretically survive to the top two with as few as 11,000 votes. This tight scenario opens the door for the wildest of wild cards, current Mayor Finkbeiner. A savvy and opportunistic politician, Carty has to see that he could now enter the race, further split the vote and make the cut into the top two with maybe as few as 9,000 votes. Despite the controversies, opposition and recall effort, it would be risky to bet against 9,000 or 10,000 people still being willing to vote for Carty. He undoubtedly has the war chest and the signs in storage; Collins’ entering the race may have opened the door for Carty in a way neither of them would have imagined a few weeks ago.
If there are any more surprise entrants before the mid-July deadline, the mathematical threshold is lowered even further. This mayoral primary seems primed for a surprise, and if there is one thing Carty’s supporters will tell you, it’s that he is full of surprises.
Thomas F. Pounds is president and publisher of Toledo Free Press. Contact him at tpounds@toledofreepress.com.
A poll on W.T.O.L., has as the leading category of what Toledo , needs to do to survive is, job creation and retention !!This is as apparent as anything and I’m pleasantly surprised at the results.Too bad that Toledo/Lucas county voters will without a doubt, vote to retain the most business hating politicians on the planet therefore, ELIMINATING any chance for job growth/retention here.If these citizens have FINALLY come to the conclusion that everyone cannot work for unions, the government ,or be on welfare…it would go a long way in FIRST, getting rid of these politicians who have done their absolute BEST, to kill jobs here starting with Champion Spark Plug in 1986 !! I will NEVER forget what Kapturd said about Champion , being a GREEDY COMPANY ??!! No, they were trying to SURVIVE a very hostile business environment , here in Toledo !!! This is something even a friendless zero from Vero, could understand…almost !
This comment was posted on July 8th, 2009 at 10:52 am