A bear market is truly something to behold. When the markets decide to change direction, they can turn on a dime and there’s just no stopping them.
In the past week or two, stocks have been on the up and up on good economic news. Headlines driving the market higher include higher orders for durable goods, rising crude oil prices, higher-trending homes prices and existing home sales. Thankfully, unemployment is one of the few categories not heading higher as it seems to be taking a break from its recent surge.
Unfortunately, this market action has led to higher gas prices at the pump, recently topping the $2 mark, and has also been marked by a declining dollar. This is due to several factors. First, as we have argued and the international community is coming to realize, is that government stimulus plans have a price: inflation. Second, while the dollar lately has been a relative safe-haven currency as many international investors have felt the United States would be the first country to emerge from the global economic mess, it seems obvious that their sentiment is changing.

We believe that many investors have been unable to take advantage of this recent rally, frozen in place on the sidelines waiting for proof that good times have returned to stay. As we have often argued, the vast majority of investors (and investment advisers, for that matter) react to market conditions, instead of anticipating. Unfortunately for them, there is no money to be made on yesterday’s news. Investors who wait for proof of good times are sure to end up making moves that are either wrong, late or both. And these investors are in good company. Current estimates have counted somewhere in the order of $5 trillion sitting on the sidelines waiting to get back into the market.
Investors need reminding, as do industry professionals, from time to time, that this business is not for the faint of heart. Traders spend lifetimes honing their craft and can still be humbled by the market in mere moments. The financial markets are not a playground, nor are they a nursery school. Consider it foreshadowing that at one end of Wall Street is a cemetery, at the other is the East River. This is not to say that investors should renounce stocks and bonds immediately, but be aware. And please, consult a professional. It doesn’t guarantee success, but it certainly can’t hurt.

Dock David Treece is a stockbroker licensed with FINRA. He works for Treece Financial Services Corp., www.TreeceInvestments.com. The above information is the express opinion of Dock David Treece and should not be used without outside verification.

Former Toledo fire chief Mike Bell announced he is running for mayor.
The 54-year-old confirmed he has submitted his resignation as state fire marshal effective April 10, so he can campaign full time, according to a press release.
Ten days ago, supporters opened a campaign committee, Mike Bell for Toledo.
“I don’t believe that we are as bad off as we let ourselves believe, but I do believe if we do not take action soon, we could be in that survival mode,” Bell said in an interview with Toledo Free Press on March 13.
“I bring characteristics to this election that probably other people who will be equally seeking the position do not have, he said. “I have the ability to unite people who sometimes are on the opposite sides of the fence for the common cause. It may only be for a temporary time, but I am able to do that.”
According to a press release, Bell will focus on four issues, including balancing the city budget and saving and creating jobs.
Bell joined the Toledo Fire Department in March 1980, working as a water rescue diver and paramedic before entering the managerial ranks as a shift supervisor, training officer and recruiter. He was a captain when he was promoted to chief in 1990.
“If you talk to people in the city of Toledo and you talk to people who surround the city of Toledo, people who are here love being here, but they will be the first to tell you that we have never, ever reached our potential,” he said.

Fifth Third Bank will open an In-School on March 24 at Stewart Academy for Girls.

Fifth grade students, who were interviewed for the positions, will operate the bank at Stewart Academy. The student bankers will open accounts, take deposits and balance the bank. No withdrawals can be made at the In-School Bank and parental approval is required for students to participate.

The bank will be open in the school library from 8:45 to 9:45 a.m. every second Tuesday beginning March 24.

A new study raises an intriguing question: How free is your state?

With lawmakers in Ohio considering tougher seat-belt enforcement for civilians and shorter prison stays for criminals as two ways to balance the $54 billion, two-year state budget, the question seems both relevant and timely.

Ohio was ranked 38th out of 50 states on the index of personal and economic freedom developed by the Mercatus Center of George Mason University. In other words, only 12 states have fewer freedoms.

The study ranks New Hampshire, Colorado and South Dakota in a virtual tie for first place. New York and California are ranked among the least free.

The index is wide-ranging and comes from an individual rights perspective, which defies many philosophical boundaries of the mainstream Republican and Democratic party platforms.

For example, Ohio’s prohibition against same-sex marriage is viewed as neither a positive nor a negative in the study released in late February. Why? Because all marriage requirements amount to unnecessary government intervention. (As do blood test requirements and marriage license waiting periods, by their measure.)

Ohio’s law allowing residents to carry concealed handguns? Good.

Its relatively lax marijuana laws? Also good.

By the researchers’ measure, seat belt laws and sobriety checkpoints “count as notable infringements on individual liberty.” The index also issued freedom demerits for alcohol regulations, including the few “blue laws” still in existence that prohibit Sunday alcohol sales and taxes on beer, wine and spirits. Open-container laws and cell phone driving bans are viewed as minor nuisances.

Ohio’s ranking in the study’s so-called “paternalism” category would presumably only worsen if lawmakers pass legislation allowing primary enforcement of the state’s seat belt requirement. As it is now, a driver can be fined only if pulled over for another offense.

State lawmakers in the past have been resistant to making the switch. But money talks, particularly in this historically bad economy, and Ohio can land $26 million in federal highway money if it complies.

A “yes” vote on primary seat belt enforcement might be offset on the freedom scale by allowing certain nonviolent offenders to do less time, earn early release credit faster, or serve time in community-based settings as opposed to prisons. These are among ways state prison officials are proposing to cut costs and reduce overcrowding.

The Mercatus Center has a whole list of crimes that it views as “victimless” for which governments are penalized for imposing in the index. Those include many drug offenses for individuals over 18, violations of liquor laws, gambling and prostitution.

Also on their list of paternalistic government activities: bicycle and motorcycle helmet laws, regulations requiring motorists to carry personal injury insurance, home- and private-school regulations, campaign finance rules and asset forfeiture laws that allow government to take property without a conviction of the owner.

Ohio is ranked 46th of 50 in the study’s personal freedom ranking, above only Rhode Island, New York, Illinois and, the lowest, Maryland. Alaska, Maine, New Mexico, Arkansas and Texas offer residents the most liberties in this area.

Amy Hanauer, a former New Yorker and Coloradan who is now executive director of Policy Matters Ohio, a nonprofit liberal think tank in Cleveland, said she finds the idea that New York is the nation’s least free state absurd.

She said the study appears to give high marks to states with particularly low taxes, such as Colorado.

“You can talk about freedom broadly – being able to practice the religion of your choice, speak the language you choose, dress the way you want. But to lump that in with the freedom from paying taxes is something I’ve always found troubling and not very persuasive,” she said.

“The public sector is what enables us to pursue many other freedoms in our lives,” she said, “by keeping us safe, keeping our water clean, and giving us the ability to know that we are not surrounded by people who are in desperate want, which can also affect our freedom.”

Republican state Sen. Bill Seitz tended to agree with the study that Ohioans’ freedom is suffering. He noted Ohio has sanctioned red-light cameras, restricted payday lenders, passed a statewide smoking ban and voted down legalized gaming all in the past year or two.

“The Republican Party and the state Legislature as a whole would be well-advised to promote a widely accepting message of individual freedom and individuality if they want to attract people and jobs to this state,” he said.

Ohio gets its highest marks – 29th – in the area of regulatory freedom. This category ranks states based on their labor and utility regulations, health insurance mandates, occupational licensing requirements, eminent domain laws, land and environmental regulations, and systems for allowing residents to recoup legal damages.

The researchers – political scientists William Ruger of Texas State University and Jason Sorens of the State University of New York at Buffalo – note that no one area of the country nor political party appears consistently to offer citizens more freedom. Much has to do with state politics, a state’s social attitudes and ideological leanings and its institutional design.

Liberal states are more lenient on marijuana and same-sex partner laws, for example, but tougher on gun owners, home-schoolers, motorists and smokers. Conservative states also fell in the middle of the study’s pack. Mississippi, for example, has marijuana laws that are “a study in contradictions,” its taxes are high, and its liability system is one of the worst in the nation.

Moderate, centrist governments offer their residents the most freedoms, according to the study.

“As Americans grow richer in future years, quality of life will matter more to residence decisions, while the imperative of decent employment will decline by comparison,” they wrote.

By JULIE CARR SMYTH, Associated Press Writer

Helping manage three state parks these days has Alan Ferguson feeling like a handyman with an empty toolbox.

The dump truck once used to haul brush and beach sand has broken down, aging campground shower houses feature broken basins and leaky pipes, and clearing hiking trails has been turned over to volunteers.

“We’re spread a lot thinner than we used to be,” said Ferguson, assistant park manager for Cowan Lake, Caesar Creek and Little Miami state parks. “Equipment is falling apart on us. We did our best for many years to try to keep up, but it eventually starts to show through.”

Years of budget cutbacks have left Ohio with more than $550 million in backlogged maintenance projects meant to upgrade hiking trails, repair dams, renovate cottages and make other improvements at state parks.

Some state lawmakers hope extra money will be available in the upcoming budget to chip away at the backlog.

State Rep. John Domenick, chairman of the House Agriculture & Natural Resources Committee, could not say how much money might be earmarked but said the wide public appeal of the parks should generate support.

There is $9 million in federal surplus dollars that could be used to upgrade state parks, said state Sen. John Carey, chairman of the Finance Committee. But he said the money has not yet been earmarked for that.

The parks division has had its budget cut in eight of the past 10 years. It received a total of $355 million in that period but sustained $18 million in reductions.

Since February 2008, Gov. Ted Strickland’s administration has made three rounds of budget cuts as the economy worsened, leaving the parks division with a current annual operating budget of about $63 million.

Money for maintenance, which comes from the fund, has been steadily shrinking, according to Dan West, chief of the division of parks and recreation.

West said he doesn’t expect to get the money he needs in one chunk, but he will take whatever he can get. About 35 million people visit Ohio state parks each year.

Strickland spokeswoman Amanda Wurst said the recession has created economic circumstances that are forcing tough budget choices.

“But the governor does remain committed to providing affordable outdoor recreational opportunities for the citizens of Ohio,” Wurst said.

Brent Anslinger, 33, of suburban Miami Township, is an avid hiker, once traversing the entire Buckeye Trail that winds around the state for 1,400 miles. Last month, he arrived for a hike at John Bryan State Park in southwest Ohio and was confronted with a “road closed” sign that went on to warn about storm damage to the trail.

Anslinger, who was forced to hike down the road until he arrived at the trail, said it is upsetting to see the parks begging for funding at a time when people are looking for low-cost recreation.

“It’s a shame that’s the first thing to get cut,” he said.

The parks division is not alone. Other divisions within the Ohio Department of Natural Resources are also in need of maintenance money.

The forestry division needs nearly $13 million to upgrade trails, repair dams, improve buildings and infrastructure, and buy heavy firefighting equipment.

“If a tree falls over the trails that are used by the public, they will reroute it and make a new trail. It’s detrimental to the park,” said Paul Knoop, 74, who is in Hocking Hills State Park nearly every day. “The very reason that people visit there is being neglected. They come to hike the trails and to see the natural features of the park.”

The division of natural areas and preserves needs money for trail improvement, cave protection and cleanup at Springville Marsh, a wetland in northwest Ohio that is home to a variety of threatened and endangered species. The marsh was formerly used as a landfill by a battery company.

Even the state-managed canals need work.

The Miami and Erie Canal and Ohio and Erie Canal can create flooding hazards to nearby residents and property, and the canal banks frequently fail. The canal lands program needs $4.5 million for bank repairs, stabilization and restoration to hydraulic lock, gate and dam structures.

The Treasury Department will pump up to $5 billion in financing into troubled auto parts suppliers to prevent an auto industry collapse that could undermine the government’s work to restructure General Motors and Chrysler.

The funds, announced March 19, will be made available from the government’s Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP, in a financial entity similar to a revolving credit. Large suppliers would be eligible for financing auto parts they have shipped to the Detroit carmakers but have not yet received payment.

U.S. automakers – General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC and Ford Motor Co. – will have the option of using the program and designate the companies that need financing, giving them a large role in determining which parts suppliers will survive.

The program could have a significant impact in Ohio, which ranks first in the United States in the number of auto suppliers.

GM and Chrysler, which have received $17.4 billion in government loans, said they would use the program. Ford, which has not sought the government aid, said in a statement it would not participate “as we remain viable and expect no issue with continued payments to our suppliers.”

The action was intended to help with the cash flow needs and stability of distressed auto suppliers, whose collapse could lead to the disruption of car production by the Big Three and inflict more damage on the economy.

Members of the auto task force, who spoke on condition of anonymity because their discussions have been private, said the financing was a first step in restructuring the car industry. They expect to provide a framework for revamping GM and Chrysler by March 31.

“The program will provide supply companies with much needed access to liquidity to assist them in meeting payrolls and covering their expenses, while giving the domestic auto companies reliable access to the parts they need,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a statement.

Officials said foreign automakers with U.S. operations would not be eligible to use the so-called “supplier support program.”

Auto suppliers have sought up to $25 billion to stabilize the beleaguered U.S. auto industry and have met with members of President Barack Obama’s auto industry panel, which is trying to restructure GM and Chrysler. The two companies want an additional $21.6 billion in aid.

Neil De Koker, president of the Original Equipment Suppliers Association, said he was “very optimistic that this will provide many companies with the relief they need.”

But the program was not intended to save company in the supply chain. Treasury officials said certain suppliers would still fail as part of the natural business cycle and analysts expect some suppliers to collapse because the industry has too much manufacturing capacity for current sales levels.

David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., said the financing will likely be used for suppliers that make complex engineered components that are made by few companies. Suppliers that manufacture body side moldings and other parts that can be duplicated elsewhere will not likely receive the aid, he said.

In a statement, General Motors said the program could “reduce the risk of vehicle production disruptions that would occur if auto suppliers were unable to produce due to lack of access to working capital liquidity.” Chrysler spokeswoman Shawn Morgan declined to comment.

Suppliers who ship parts to car companies typically receive payment for those shipments about 45 to 60 days later. Under normal credit conditions, suppliers sell or borrow against those commitments to pay their workers and fund their operations.

But banks have been unwilling to extend credit to suppliers because of the uncertainty of the auto companies, so the government entity will help parts suppliers access financing.

Under the program, auto companies will be required to pay a 5 percent fee of up to $250 million to join. Suppliers will have to agree to terms of the government-backed protection and pay a small fee to participate. Suppliers will be able to sell parts that they have not yet been paid for into the government program at a modest discount.

Parts makers employ about 600,000 people nationwide and many of the nation’s roughly 5,000 suppliers have been cash-strapped for several years as GM, Chrysler and Ford have reduced car and truck production because of falling sales. Their outlook has deteriorated with the economic downturn, a steep decline in auto sales and prolonged car plant shutdowns in December, January and part of February.

Suppliers in Ohio have been in downward spiral the past five years, long before the economic meltdown, sandwiched by rising costs for raw materials and automakers increasing pressure to sell them parts at lower prices.

Several already have gone through bankruptcy protection, including Toledo-based Dana Holding Corp., which this week said it will cut 5,800 people worldwide, taking it down to 23,000 employees by year’s end.

Cleveland-based Eaton Corp. said last month it expects a 10 percent decline in its markets this year

There are dozens of other small suppliers in the state that make everything from leather seat covers to shock absorbers.

Elsewhere, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc., Visteon Corp. and Lear Corp. have all warned in recent weeks that they could be forced to file for bankruptcy protection if business didn’t pick up soon.

Meanwhile, Delphi Corp., GM’s former parts division, is still trying to restructure itself after more than three years under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

In all, auto suppliers have said that more than 40 major suppliers have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and more could collapse if the government does not act.

Parts suppliers told Treasury that the estimated March 2009 payments to suppliers from the Big Three automakers are $2.4 billion, compared with an average of $8.4 billion per month in the fourth quarter of 2008, threatening their industry.

“This aid comes at a critical time for this vital industry,” said Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich. “I am pleased the program will be able to keep the doors open and lines operating at many U.S. auto suppliers.”

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland says the latest proposal to bring casino gambling to Ohio is not the best bet for solving the state’s economic problems.

Strickland tells The (Cleveland) Plain Dealer that a plan for casinos in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo would benefit casino promoters more than taxpayers.

Supporters who want to gather signatures to put the proposal before voters say it would lead to $1 billion in private investment, $600 million in tax revenue and 20,000 new jobs.

Strickland said the potential benefits would be only “modest.” He says he will oppose the plan if it makes the November ballot.

Ohio voters have repeatedly turned down casino proposals.

The State Highway Patrol says lead-foot drivers on the Ohio Turnpike accounted for a lot of speeding tickets last year.

The patrol says that nearly one out of every five drivers who its troopers cited for exceeding the speed limit by 20 mph or more was caught on the turnpike.

Troopers who patrol the toll road across northern Ohio say it’s difficult to pinpoint a reason there were so many speeders on the turnpike.

Drivers in Erie, Sandusky and Lorain counties along with Summit County in northeast Ohio each had more than 2,000 citations last year for aggressive speeding.

Hamilton County in southeast Ohio led the state in such tickets. Other counties topping the list are Montgomery, Franklin and Stark.

Few industries in Ohio were immune from job losses last month, pushing the state’s unemployment rate to a 25-year high.

Service, administrative and manufacturing areas lost the most jobs in February. The only increases were in government, hospitality and construction, the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services reported Friday.

Overall, the state’s unemployment rate was 9.4 percent in February, the highest since 1984.

“We are seeing it hit all walks of life,” said Gary Williamson, executive director of The Job Center, a job training site in Dayton.

The number of workers unemployed in Ohio in February grew by 40,000 in one month to 566,000 people.

What’s more startling is how much those numbers have climbed in just one year – 217,000 more unemployed in Ohio over the last 12 months.

Cleveland economist George Zeller said some parts of the state, including Columbus and Cleveland, have lost more jobs in finance and insurance than in manufacturing.

“What this means is that we have two major problems in the economy here in Ohio, and this has never happened before, at least since the ’30s,” he said. “There are the two main bases of the Ohio economy, and we are losing jobs in large numbers in both.”

Manufacturing losses are driving the recession, he said, but Ohio’s troubles go beyond factory slowdowns.

“That’s largely due to a ripple effect from manufacturing,” Zeller said. “When we lost manufacturing jobs, we lose retail jobs and we also lose jobs in all other industries.”

Ohio’s February jobless rate increased from 8.8 percent in January. It hasn’t been this high since May 1984, when it was 9.6 percent, said Brian Harter, a spokesman with the state’s job and family services agency.

Improvement in the state’s employment picture depends on how quickly federal economic stimulus dollars begin creating jobs and whether restructuring in the auto industry can regenerate jobs in the Midwest, Harter said.

Auto plant shutdowns in the Dayton area have taken away about 20,000 jobs in the last decade. “We’ve hit pretty close to bottom,” said Williamson, who oversees a job training and placement site that sees 2,000 people each day.

He said there are a few areas where people can find work; welders, health care workers and skilled machine operators are in demand, he said. “It’s not all doom and gloom,” he said.

Others looking for work must be ready to learn new skills and take a job that pays less than what they might want, said Bob Mercer, supervisor of the Muskingum County Opportunity Center in Zanesville.

“The majority want to go back to work right away,” he said. “A lot of people are continuing their job search even after they’re hired. They’re trying to get back to what they were earning before.”

Friends of Joe Mohler, a local musician who passed away Feb. 16, will play March 28 at the Blue Devil to raise funds for funeral and medical expenses.
Scheduled performers will be D.A. and the Prosecutors, Old School, Running with Scissors, Bill and Rick Edelman. Cover will be a $5 donation. Raffles, food, t-shirts and a limited demo CD of D.A. and the Prosecutors will be sold, with profits going to the family.