In 1998, Children Services Board (CSB) made some predictions about its finances, saying that by 2006, it would be down to only about $6 million in their reserve fund — if it continued to get voter approval of its two levies.

In 2003, again anticipating voter approval of one of its two levies, the financial estimates showed that by 2008, its reserve fund would be down to $2.8 million.

In 2004, when its other levy was up for a vote, CSB projected its fund balance would be a negative $5 million by 2009. This year, when it is planning to put an increased levy on the ballot, CSB is projecting its fund balance will be a negative $3.4 million by 2013.

Every time it has a levy on the ballot, CSB produces figures showing that, even with the passage of a levy, its fund balance will be depleted several years out.

What actually happens, though, is quite different than the projections.

CSB’s 1998 projection of only $6 million by 2006 was off 326 percent. Five years later in 2003, CSB projected it would have $18.56 million by the end of 2006. That was off

47 percent. CSB actually ended 2006 with a fund balance of $26.84 million.

In 2004, CSB projected its fund balance at the end of 2007 would be $12.02 million. The actual balance was $24.52 million. It was off 104 percent in only a three-year period.

Why is it important to examine the projections coming out of CSB? Because this year it wants to put a new levy on the ballot to replace an expiring one — and it’s an increased millage, in addition to being taxed against your current property values.

Why is CSC asking for more money in these difficult economic times? Well, because even with this new levy passing, CSB is predicting that its fund balance in 2013, five years out, will be a negative $3.4 million — so obviously, it needs more money.

Every time one of its two levies is on the ballot, CSB claims that during the next several years, its fund balance will be depleted, which is why the money is needed. Except it hasn’t depleted the reserves: Between 1999 and 2002, the fund balance actually increased from $20 million to more than $33 million.

Clearly, CSB’s projections of running out of money are not accurate, though they did reduce the reserves to $24 million at the end of 2007.

In 2006, the expenses for CSB totaled just more than $46 million — which was about a $4 million increase over 2005. This is also the year of a new union contract for its employees. Despite claiming poverty to the voters, CSB had enough income to give 3 percent pay increases for each of the three years of the contract.  

Additionally, CSB gave employees in its four bargaining units a 1 percent lump-sum payment for “agreeing to the contract.” CSB also adjusted the salary schedule in 2005 and increased the call-in rates for two of the unions in those negotiations.

I voted no on each of those contracts because I believed that 3 percent pay increases were more than the agency could afford while at the same time telling voters it was running out of money.

I also disagreed with a signing bonus for an existing contract. But the contracts were approved 2-1 by the Board of Lucas County commissioners.

And now, in the last year of its generous union contract, CSB is saying it needs a 1.25 mil five-year levy to replace the 1 mil levy that is expiring. The new levy is projected to generate $12.1 million next year, its first year of collection, and about $61 million during its life.

CSB has made its levy request to the county’s Levy Review Committee, which has not made its recommendation to the commissioners.

Regardless of the recommendation, the commissioners have the final say on whether the levy goes on the ballot. CSB is quick to point out that none of its levy votes has failed in the past 40 years.

This levy advertising campaign will again stress that this money is “for the children.” In fact, it’s the only levy that can use this catch phrase appropriately.

However, even if the money is for the children, the agency has demonstrated that its financial projections cannot be trusted to be accurate.

Former Lucas County Commissioner Maggie Thurber is the host of WSPD’s “Eye on
Toledo.” She blogs at http://thurbersthoughts.blogspot.com.

This entry was posted on Friday, August 1st, 2008 at 12:00 am and is filed under TFP Version 1.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Both comments and pings are currently closed.